Markets Steady as Tariff Hopes Offset Dovish Signals (04.30.2025)

The euro rebounded toward 1.1375 but remained range-bound as dovish ECB rhetoric capped the upside. The yen fell to 142.4 after weak Japanese data, while the pound slipped to 1.338, still near a two-year high, supported by limited UK tariff exposure. 

Gold dipped below $3,310 as tariff fears eased, though the metal stayed on course for its fourth monthly gain. Silver slid with a stronger dollar, while key U.S. data looms.

EUR/USD Rebounds but Stays Range-Bound

EUR/USD bounced from nearly 1.1300 to 1.1375 but stayed range-bound as a modest dollar rebound caps gains. The euro is weighed by dovish ECB comments and growing June rate cut bets, while the dollar is supported ahead of key US data. ECB officials flagged easing inflation and trade risks. Still, Trump’s trade stance and Fed cut hopes limit USD strength. Markets now await Eurozone inflation and GDP, plus US ADP jobs, Q1 GDP, and PCE data.

Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.

Yen Falls to 142.4 on Weak Data

The Japanese yen fell to around 142.4 per dollar on Wednesday, its second day of losses, after weak March data showed industrial output and retail sales missed forecasts. Investors await the Bank of Japan's decision, with rates expected to stay at 0.5% and a cautious tone likely amid U.S. tariff risks. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said “substantial talks” with Japan are ongoing, increasing hopes for a trade deal.

Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.

Gold Slips but Monthly Rally Holds

Gold dipped below $3,310 on Wednesday as easing U.S. tariff fears reduced safe-haven demand. The drop followed Trump’s executive orders, which halted new auto tariffs and cut duties on imported parts. Commerce Secretary Lutnick also noted progress in trade talks. Still, gold is up over 6% for the month and set for a fourth straight monthly gain, supported by ongoing global trade uncertainty, U.S. economic concerns, strong ETF inflows, central bank buying, and Chinese demand.

Key resistance is at $3365, followed by $3,405 and $3,500. Support stands at $3250, then $3165 and $3050.

Pound Slips to 1.338, Still Near 2-Year High

The British pound edged down to $1.338 but stayed near its highest since February 2022, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. Sterling is up 3.8% in April, heading for its best month since November 2023. The UK is seen as less exposed to U.S. tariffs, which Trump delayed until July, as the U.S. ran a $12 billion goods surplus with the UK in 2024. The pound is also supported by expectations of a cautious Bank of England, with markets pricing in 85 basis points of rate cuts this year, matching the Fed. Focus now shifts to key U.S. jobs and inflation data.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.

XAG/USD Slips as Dollar Strengthens

Silver (XAG/USD) fell to around $32.80 on Wednesday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a stronger dollar reduced its safe-haven appeal. Optimism rose after China exempted some U.S. imports from tariffs, while the Dollar Index approached 99.70. Traders now await key U.S. data, including Q1 GDP, PCE, and jobs figures.

Technically, resistance stands at $33.80, followed by $34.20 and $34.85 if breached, while support lies at $32.50, then $31.40 and $30.20.