The U.S. dollar rebounded on Friday as President Trump reassured markets that U.S.-China trade talks continue and clarified his support for Fed Chair Powell.
EUR/USD traded near 1.1350, while the yen weakened to around 143 per dollar amid easing global tensions. Gold held near $3,330 as cautious sentiment persisted, while silver hovered around $33.50. The British pound stayed flat, with upcoming economic releases likely to guide next week’s direction.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 6:00 | GBP | Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) | 1.80% | 2.20% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) | 4.40% | 4.10% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | 50.8 | 57 |
The EUR/USD traded near 1.1350 on Friday, while the US Dollar Index rose above 99.5, recovering from earlier losses. The dollar strengthened after President Trump reassured markets that trade talks with China would continue, despite Beijing’s denials. Optimism also grew on reported progress with Japan and South Korea. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent said US-China tariffs must be reduced significantly for real progress, increasing hopes for a deal. Trump also eased monetary policy concerns by stating he never planned to remove Fed Chair Powell. Although Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack mentioned a rate cut in June if needed, renewed trade optimism lifted the dollar.
Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
| R1: 1.1460 | S1: 1.1260 |
| R2: 1.1580 | S2: 1.1200 |
| R3: 1.1680 | S3: 1.1150 |
The Japanese yen weakened to around 143 per dollar on Friday, reversing Thursday’s gains as the U.S. dollar rebounded on easing global trade tensions. President Trump reassured markets that U.S.-China trade talks are ongoing, despite China’s denial, and optimism over talks with Japan and South Korea also supported the dollar. Trump also eased monetary policy concerns by clarifying he never intended to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
In Japan, Tokyo’s core inflation rose to 3.4% in April, the highest in two years, posing a challenge for the Bank of Japan as it balances rising inflation with external risks from U.S. tariffs. The BOJ is expected to keep rates steady.
Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
| R1: 144.00 | S1: 139.70 |
| R2: 145.90 | S2: 137.00 |
| R3: 146.75 | S3: 135.00 |
Gold is trading near $3,330 on Friday and is on track to record its third consecutive weekly gain. The increase in prices is primarily driven by heightened safe-haven demand, as uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade agreement continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Although Chinese officials have publicly denied the continuation of negotiations, President Trump stated that discussions are still in progress. Adding to the cautious outlook, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that any progress would depend on the reduction of existing tariffs, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term resolution.
Key resistance is at $3410, followed by $3,500 and $3,600. Support stands at $3315, then $3290 and $3250.
| R1: 3410 | S1: 3315 |
| R2: 3500 | S2: 3290 |
| R3: 3600 | S3: 3250 |
The British pound held steady near 1.3290 on Friday morning, maintaining levels seen in the previous session. The currency remained flat in recent days, supported by optimistic comments from Donald Trump and largely neutral PMI data. Upcoming economic releases and developments in the US-China trade dispute are expected to play a key role in shaping the pair’s direction next week.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.
| R1: 1.3430 | S1: 1.3200 |
| R2: 1.3500 | S2: 1.3050 |
| R3: 1.3550 | S3: 1.2960 |
Silver is trading around $33.50 on Friday morning, continuing to show greater sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and trade news due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal. Recent price movements were shaped by mixed signals in U.S.-China trade relations. Although the Trump administration reportedly considered tariff reductions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that no formal proposals have been made and negotiations have not yet begun.
Technically, silver faces initial resistance at $33.80, with further levels at $34.20 and $34.85 if the upward move continues. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $33.15, followed by $31.40 and $30.20 if further weakness occurs.
| R1: 33.80 | S1: 33.15 |
| R2: 34.20 | S2: 31.40 |
| R3: 34.85 | S3: 30.20 |
Risk sentiment shifted this week as Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating, weakening the dollar and supporting major currencies and commodities.
Detail Dollar Strengthens on Trade Deal Pause (05.19.2025)The U.S. dollar gained traction Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to pause retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, prompting a gap lower in EUR/USD to 1.1064. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing fiscal concerns, sparking risk aversion and supporting safe-haven assets like gold and the yen.
Detail
Dollar Gains and Gold Slips Amid Risk Appetite (19 - 23 May)The U.S. dollar held near 100.8, heading for a 0.6% weekly gain as weak data increased Fed cut bets. The euro rebounded to $1.12 on firm inflation and ECB cut hopes. The pound hovered near $1.32 as UK jobs data raised BoE cut odds. The yen rose toward 145 despite Japan’s 0.2% GDP drop, with the BoJ staying cautious.
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