Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
EUR/USD held near pre-war highs, while sterling stayed close to multi-month peaks despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty. The Japanese yen strengthened on renewed intervention signals, while commodities maintained their upward bias, with gold holding above $4,800 and silver pushing past $80. Although improving sentiment has reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, ongoing tensions and military developments continue to limit stronger upside across markets.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 07:00 | GBP | GDP (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 10:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| 13.30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) | 10.3 | 18.1 |
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 219.K |
EUR/USD remained steady near pre-war peaks as optimism over a potential US–Iran deal supported the currency. Despite fresh US troop deployments and Christine Lagarde’s warnings regarding high energy costs, the ECB maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, keeping the euro supported amid shifting geopolitical headlines.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1840, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1800.
| R1: 1.1840 | S1: 1.1800 |
| R2: 1.1890 | S2: 1.1770 |
| R3: 1.1920 | S3: 1.1640 |
Gold continues to be above the $4,800 level, finding support as hopes for prolonged ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran improved market sentiment. This recovery occurred despite persistent friction in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed under continued tensions.
First resistance is seen at $4870, with initial support near $4800.
| R1: 4870 | S1: 4800 |
| R2: 4960 | S2: 4610 |
| R3: 5020 | S3: 4500 |
The yen strengthened toward 158.8 against the dollar, reversing earlier losses. This rebound followed signals from Japanese officials regarding active discussions with US authorities and a firm commitment to intervene in the currency markets if volatility necessitates decisive action.
Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.
| R1: 160.20 | S1: 158.10 |
| R2: 160.80 | S2: 157.60 |
| R3: 161.30 | S3: 156.80 |
Sterling traded near $1.36, holding near multi-month highs as improving sentiment around potential ceasefire extensions supported the currency. While this optimism provided a steady floor for the currency, gains were tempered by a wary market reaction to news of further US military deployments in the region.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3510.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3510 |
| R2: 1.3650 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3700 | S3: 1.3280 |
On Thursday, silver climbed past $80, nearing monthly peaks as traders weighed the potential for a lasting US–Iran peace agreement. While such a deal could mitigate inflationary pressures, the metal's price still remains notably below the levels seen prior to the conflict’s onset.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.00 while support is located around $77.70.
| R1: 82.00 | S1: 77.70 |
| R2: 84.60 | S2: 73.00 |
| R3: 89.10 | S3: 71.50 |
Markets turned their attention to the European Central Bank on Wednesday as the euro recovered modestly from recent lows.
Markets remained cautious on Tuesday as investors balanced easing tensions between Iran and Israel against persistent inflation concerns.
Strong US Data Backs Rate Hike Bets (08-12 June)Global markets started the week as investors reassessed interest rate expectations following a series of stronger US economic releases. Solid labor market data, rising job openings, and resilient employment figures strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy, lifting the US dollar and bond yields. At the same time, renewed tensions in the Middle East, including missile exchanges between Iran and Israel and ongoing disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, kept energy markets on edge and maintained concerns about inflationary pressures.
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