Global markets remained shaped by persistent U.S. dollar weakness, shifting central bank expectations, and renewed Middle East risks.
The dollar index held near its recent decline around 98.8, remaining under pressure after last week's steep losses, as a sharp rise in Treasury yields deepened concerns over the US government's growing debt burden. EUR/USD held near multi-month highs as improving Eurozone business activity added support, while sterling reached a six-month peak amid elevated UK inflation. Gold climbed toward $4,650 and silver extended its rally above $69 as lower Treasury yields and U.S. fiscal concerns supported precious metals. Meanwhile, the yen remained near 158.9 as expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike increased sharply.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| 02:45 | NZD | Core Retail Sales (QoQ) | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
EUR/USD trades firmly above $1.1680, holding near multi-month highs on persistent dollar weakness driven by US fiscal concerns and an expanded Treasury buyback initiative. Eurozone data shows improving business activity, led by German manufacturing, while inflation expectations moderate slightly above ECB targets. Market attention now turns to Fed Chair Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole address and July PCE inflation figures for direction.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1720 while the support starts from 1.1650.
| R1: 1.1720 | S1: 1.1650 |
| R2: 1.1750 | S2: 1.1610 |
| R3: 1.1810 | S3: 1.1570 |
Gold surged to near $4,650 per ounce, extending gains to its highest level since mid-May. Concerns over US debt management intensified after the Treasury unexpectedly supported long-dated bond buybacks, dragging yields and the dollar down while reigniting debasement trades. Sanction threats against Iran heightened oil supply risks, while markets look ahead to upcoming PCE inflation data and Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
First resistance is seen at $4660, with initial support near $4600.
| R1: 4660 | S1: 4600 |
| R2: 4775 | S2: 4560 |
| R3: 4890 | S3: 4490 |
The Japanese yen traded flat near 158.9 per dollar, supported by rising expectations for a prompt Bank of Japan rate hike. Markets currently price an 82% chance of a September rate increase, up significantly from 23% before July's meeting. Broad dollar weakness provided further support, while traders now await upcoming comments from Deputy Governor Himino for policy guidance.
First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.20.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 157.20 |
| R2: 160.70 | S2: 156.00 |
| R3: 161.50 | S3: 155.30 |
The British pound rose past $1.363 to hit a six-month high as broad dollar weakness lifted major currencies. Sterling gained extra momentum after the US Treasury unexpectedly doubled its long-term bond purchases to support liquidity and lower borrowing costs. Elevated UK inflation, reaching a four-month peak of 2.9% in July despite cooling labor data, supported expectations for further rate hikes.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3680, with support around 1.3590.
| R1: 1.3680 | S1: 1.3590 |
| R2: 1.3720 | S2: 1.3560 |
| R3: 1.3790 | S3: 1.3520 |
Silver hovered at a two-month high above $69 per ounce, driven by ongoing concerns over US debt management after the Treasury unexpectedly ramped up longer-dated bond buybacks. The intervention lowered yields and the dollar while reigniting debasement demand. Heightened Middle East supply risks from threatened US sanctions on Iran provided further support, with markets awaiting upcoming PCE inflation data and Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $69.50, while support is located around $67.20.
| R1: 69.50 | S1: 67.20 |
| R2: 70.80 | S2: 64.50 |
| R3: 72.00 | S3: 60.00 |
Dollar Falls on Debt Concerns as Yields Rise (24 – 28 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under continued pressure as concerns over federal debt and Treasury market management moved to the center of investor attention. The Dollar Index hovered near 98.8 following sharp losses in the previous week, while the US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback programme pushed longer-term yields and the dollar lower. The move supported gold, silver, and major currencies, while investors assessed its longer-term implications for US borrowing costs and the yield curve.
Detail Weak USD Continues to Lift Markets (08.21.2026)Global markets ended the week with broad U.S. dollar weakness after the Treasury announced plans to expand long-term debt buybacks, adding liquidity and pressuring yields.
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