Markets opened the week on a more positive note as signs of potential de-escalation between the US and Iran weighed on the US dollar.
EUR/USD moved higher toward 1.1730, while sterling reclaimed the 1.3500 level on improved risk sentiment and easing inflation concerns. In commodities, gold rebounded above $4,700 and silver climbed toward $76, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remained stable near 159.3 as traders awaited the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. Despite the temporary optimism, markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and upcoming central bank actions.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 17:30 | EU | ECB’s Scnabel Speaks |
The EUR/USD climbed toward 1.1730 during Monday’s Asian session as the US Dollar retreated. The Dollar Index slipped to 98.45, reversing gains made after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed. Sentiment improved slightly following Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockades. Market participants now brace for heightened volatility ahead of crucial policy rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the ECB.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1750, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.
| R1: 1.1750 | S1: 1.1640 |
| R2: 1.1760 | S2: 1.1590 |
| R3: 1.1800 | S3: 1.1550 |
Gold prices climbed back above $4,700 per ounce on Monday, recovering as Tehran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This fresh diplomatic offer through Pakistani mediators suggests a potential de-escalation by postponing nuclear discussions. While the yellow metal found support from these easing tensions, gains remain capped. Persistent inflation risks and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates continue to keep bullion under pressure as central banks monitor the fragile ceasefire
First resistance is seen at $4730, with initial support near $4625.
| R1: 4730 | S1: 4625 |
| R2: 4770 | S2: 4550 |
| R3: 4860 | S3: 4490 |
The Japanese yen stabilized near 159.3 per dollar on Monday as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision. While rates are expected to remain at 0.75%, the BOJ may lift inflation forecasts and trim growth outlooks due to the Middle East conflict. Governor Kazuo Ueda is tasked with signaling a commitment to normalization to support the currency. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Katayama warned that authorities retain a "free hand" to take decisive action against speculative volatility.
Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 159.30.
| R1: 160.00 | S1: 159.30 |
| R2: 160.50 | S2: 158.60 |
| R3: 161.30 | S3: 158.00 |
The GBP/USD climbed past 1.3500 on Monday, hitting a one week high as dip buying surfaced during the Asian session. The pair rose toward the mid 1.3500s as the US Dollar retreated. Risk sentiment improved following the reports of Tehran’s proposal. Declining oil prices further cooled inflation fears, lowering the necessity for aggressive Fed hikes. Combined with anticipated Bank of England tightening, these factors have significantly supported the Pound’s near term outlook.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3410.
| R1: 1.3500 | S1: 1.3410 |
| R2: 1.3570 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3650 | S3: 1.3280 |
Silver climbed toward $76 per ounce on Monday, marking its second consecutive winning session as safe-haven demand intensified. Tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump canceled a Pakistani delegation visit, citing Tehran's diplomatic offer as insufficient. This deadlock, coupled with the ongoing US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, has fueled fresh supply disruption fears. While these risks support the metal, surging energy costs could trigger persistent inflation, potentially inviting further monetary tightening that would curb upside momentum for non-yielding assets.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.50 while support is located around $73.50.
| R1: 76.50 | S1: 73.50 |
| R2: 78.20 | S2: 71.00 |
| R3: 80.10 | S3: 69.20 |
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% in April, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995.
Detail
Oil Surge and Stalled Talks Fuel Tension (27 April – 1 May)Global markets moved into a risk-sensitive phase this week as stalled US–Iran negotiations and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reshaped sentiment. Safe-haven demand returned as reports of naval activity and continued blockades signaled that a quick resolution remains unlikely. With the key shipping route still largely restricted, energy prices surged, feeding directly into inflation concerns and shifting expectations across currencies, commodities, and bond markets.
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