US stock futures fell Monday after Trump announced planned tariffs on eight European countries, starting at 10% in February and rising to 25% by June, to exert pressure over Greenland.
EUR/USD slid to a monthly low as firm US data and diverging central bank paths favored the dollar, despite Germany exiting recession. The yen strengthened on rising safe-haven demand amid escalating tariff threats tied to Greenland, while gold and silver surged to fresh record highs as investors priced in broader trade risks. Sterling steadied near 1.34 after stronger UK growth data, though expectations for rate cuts remain in focus.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 4.5% | 4.8% |
The euro dropped toward $1.163 on Monday, hitting its lowest point in over a month. While Germany’s 0.2% growth in 2025 ended a persistent recession, ongoing manufacturing weakness continues to dampen the outlook. With Eurozone inflation hitting the 2% target, the ECB is expected to maintain current rates. However, strong U.S. retail data has strengthened the dollar, as diverging central bank paths favor the American currency over the single block.
Technically, 1.1570 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1660.
| R1: 1.1660 | S1: 1.1570 |
| R2: 1.1700 | S2: 1.1530 |
| R3: 1.1740 | S3: 1.1500 |
The Japanese yen strengthened past 158 on Monday, reaching a one-week high as investors sought safety. Global risk appetite soured following President Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on several European nations over the Greenland dispute. Domestically, focus is on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expected announcement of a February snap election, with the ruling LDP proposing to scrap the 8% food tax to alleviate inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold rates steady this week.
Technically, resistance stands near 158.20, while support is firm at 157.40.
| R1: 158.20 | S1: 157.40 |
| R2: 158.60 | S2: 157.00 |
| R3: 158.90 | S3: 156.60 |
Gold prices soared more than 1.4% on Monday, reaching a record $4,689 per ounce. Investors rushed to safe-haven assets after President Trump announced a 10% tariff on eight European nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, over the Greenland purchase dispute. These duties are set to begin February 1 and could climb to 25% by June. Heightened fears of European retaliation and broader global instability continue to sustain gold's record-breaking climb.
Gold sees support near $4615, while resistance is around $4700.
| R1: 4700 | S1: 4615 |
| R2: 4760 | S2: 4550 |
| R3: 4800 | S3: 4500 |
The British pound maintained its position near $1.34 on Monday, recovering from earlier losses following stronger UK growth data. November’s GDP climbed 0.3%, reversing a previous contraction and beating analyst forecasts. Additionally, the economy grew 0.1% over the three months to November, defying expectations of a decline. While these figures provide a lift, traders still anticipate further interest rate cuts this year, with a significant probability of a reduction by April.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3340, with resistance around 1.3420.
| R1: 1.3420 | S1: 1.3340 |
| R2: 1.3460 | S2: 1.3300 |
| R3: 1.3520 | S3: 1.3250 |
Silver prices surged over 4% toward $94 per ounce on Monday, reaching a fresh record high. Investors rushed to the metal as a safe haven after President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European nations over the Greenland purchase dispute. While French President Emmanuel Macron pushed the EU to activate its "anti-coercion" trade tools, silver's rally was further sustained by persistent supply deficits, overshadowing recent relief from the U.S. decision to exempt critical minerals from taxes.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $94.10 while support is located around $91.70.
| R1: 94.10 | S1: 91.70 |
| R2: 97.20 | S2: 89.70 |
| R3: 100.00 | S3: 87.30 |
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
Markets Balance Between Relief and RiskGlobal markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.
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