Global markets advanced as Trump scrapped February 1 tariffs after Davos talks with NATO's Mark Rutte produced a "framework" deal over Greenland, though details remain vague and Denmark still refuses to negotiate sovereignty.
EUR/USD slipped below 1.17 as easing U.S.–EU trade tensions revived dollar demand and improved risk appetite. The yen softened amid fiscal uncertainty and Japan’s snap election call, while gold and silver pulled back from record highs as safe-haven demand faded. Sterling held steady after an upside inflation surprise, with markets now focused on U.S. GDP, PCE data, and ECB policy signals for direction.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 4.3% | 3.8% | |||
| Initial Jobless Claims | 209K | 198K | ||
| 0.2% | 0.2% | |||
| 2.7% | 2.8% | |||
| -2.500M | 3.391M |
The euro weakened toward 1.1675 on Thursday as a thaw in U.S.–EU relations revived dollar demand. President Trump’s decision to drop Greenland-related tariff threats following NATO talks has improved risk appetite and lifted U.S. equities. This shift has driven the pair below the 1.1700 support level. Markets now shift their focus to today's U.S. GDP and Core PCE inflation data, along with the ECB’s latest policy accounts, for fresh direction.
Technically, 1.1650 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1720.
| R1: 1.1720 | S1: 1.1650 |
| R2: 1.1760 | S2: 1.1610 |
| R3: 1.1800 | S3: 1.1570 |
The yen weakened toward 158.5 per dollar on Thursday as the Bank of Japan began its policy meeting. Fiscal uncertainty spiked following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s call for a February 8 snap election and her plan to scrap the food sales tax. While the BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.75%, intervention fears remain high. Despite record exports in December, a double-digit drop in U.S.-bound shipments continues to weigh on the outlook.
Technically, resistance stands near 158.70, while support is firm at 158.10.
| R1: 158.70 | S1: 158.10 |
| R2: 159.00 | S2: 157.70 |
| R3: 159.40 | S3: 157.30 |
Gold prices dropped over 1% to $4,780 on Thursday, retreating from record highs as geopolitical tensions softened. At Davos, President Trump ruled out using force to acquire Greenland and suspended tariff threats against Europe, citing a new "framework" deal with NATO. While this de-escalation reduced safe-haven demand, uncertainty remains after EU lawmakers delayed a major U.S. trade pact. Investors are now focused on delayed U.S. PCE data for hints on the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Gold sees support near $4740, while resistance is around $4830.
| R1: 4830 | S1: 4740 |
| R2: 4890 | S2: 4660 |
| R3: 4950 | S3: 4590 |
Sterling traded around $1.3430 on Thursday, holding above recent lows. Higher UK inflation, which climbed to 3.4% in December, has limited the case for immediate Bank of England rate cuts. While the labor market remains soft with unemployment at 5.1%, the pound found additional support from a weaker dollar. Global sentiment remains sensitive to the U.S.–EU standoff over Greenland, which continues to overshadow domestic economic data.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3400, with resistance around 1.3460.
| R1: 1.3460 | S1: 1.3400 |
| R2: 1.3510 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3570 | S3: 1.3300 |
Silver slipped toward $92 on Thursday, retreating from recent records as President Trump’s pivot on Greenland eased immediate geopolitical fears. After announcing a preliminary framework with NATO and ruling out military force, Trump suspended his February tariff threats against Europe. While Denmark continues to reject any territorial talks, silver remains fundamentally supported by a fourth year of global supply deficits and persistent physical market tightness.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $95.00 while support is located around $91.00.
| R1: 95.00 | S1: 91.00 |
| R2: 97.20 | S2: 88.70 |
| R3: 100.00 | S3: 86.40 |
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
Markets Balance Between Relief and RiskGlobal markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.
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