Global markets started the week with heightened volatility as currency and commodity markets reacted to a mix of macroeconomic signals and rising geopolitical risks.
EUR/USD eased after softer Eurozone activity data and renewed tariff threats from President Trump weighed on sentiment. The yen surged on rising intervention fears, while gold and silver hit fresh record highs amid escalating geopolitical and fiscal risks. Sterling advanced to a two-week high as hawkish BoE signals and firm UK data reduced easing expectations.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 13:00 | USD | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) | 3.1% | -2.2% |
EUR/USD retreated to 1.1860 Monday after filling an opening gap up. Soft S&P Global data showed slowing Eurozone private sector growth in January, as cooling services offset a recovering manufacturing sector. Sentiment was further pressured by reports that Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa secures a trade deal with China. Markets remain cautious as trade tensions and cooling EU activity weigh on the currency.
Momentum remains constructive, with 1.1890 in focus on the upside, while 1.1810 defines nearby support.
| R1: 1.1890 | S1: 1.1810 |
| R2: 1.1950 | S2: 1.1760 |
| R3: 1.2000 | S3: 1.1680 |
The Yen strengthened toward 154 per dollar Monday, hitting a one month high following a 2% two day rally. Markets are increasingly alert to potential coordinated Japan-US currency intervention. This follows Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Sunday warning that authorities will take “necessary steps” to combat speculative trading. The hawkish rhetoric has successfully fueled a sharp recovery, as traders reassess the risks of shorting the currency.
Technically, resistance stands near 155.10, while support is firm at 153.90.
| R1: 155.10 | S1: 153.90 |
| R2: 156.00 | S2: 153.20 |
| R3: 157.30 | S3: 152.50 |
Gold skyrocketed past $5,080 Monday as a "perfect storm" of risks fueled safe-haven demand. US shutdown fears intensified after Senate Democrats vowed to block a key spending bill following a fatal federal shooting in Minneapolis. Meanwhile, trade tensions simmered as Mark Carney denied pursuing a China free-trade deal despite Donald Trump’s 100% tariff threat. These compounding geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties have pushed bullion to fresh all-time highs as 2026 begins.
Gold sees support near $5000, while resistance is around $5090.
| R1: 5090 | S1: 5000 |
| R2: 5140 | S2: 4940 |
| R3: 5200 | S3: 4850 |
The British Pound climbed past $1.3670 as markets scaled back Bank of England easing bets following hawkish signals and strong UK data. Policymaker Megan Greene noted that a recent survey suggests the wage growth slowdown has likely ended. She expressed caution regarding disinflation and warned that looser US monetary policy could inadvertently drive UK inflation higher, increasing the case for the BoE to maintain elevated interest rates throughout 2026.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3440, with resistance around 1.3530.
| R1: 1.3710 | S1: 1.3620 |
| R2: 1.3770 | S2: 1.3580 |
| R3: 1.3850 | S3: 1.3440 |
Silver surged over 5% Monday, hitting a new all time high past $108 amid intense safe haven demand and physical market deficits. Retail interest in China and India has skyrocketed, with investors favoring 1-kilogram bars. In response, Chinese manufacturers are reportedly pivoting production from jewelry to investment grade bullion to satisfy the unprecedented appetite, as the metal continues its historic 2026 breakout.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $110, while support is located around $106.80.
| R1: 110.00 | S1: 106.80 |
| R2: 111.60 | S2: 105.00 |
| R3: 113.50 | S3: 102.90 |
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
Markets Balance Between Relief and RiskGlobal markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.
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