Markets opened the week gripped by fresh geopolitical risks after U.S. forces struck Iranian nuclear sites, prompting a wave of safe-haven demand.
The dollar surged as tensions escalated, pulling EUR/USD lower and weighing on risk assets. Gold held near recent highs, while silver rebounded on renewed uncertainty. Central bank outlooks and PMI data remain in focus for the week ahead.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 08:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 49.6 | 49.4 |
| 08:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun) | 50.0 | 49.7 |
| 08:30 | GBP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 46.9 | 46.4 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 51.1 | 52.0 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) | 52.9 | 53.7 |
| 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales (May) | 3.96M | 4.00M |
EUR/USD dipped to around 1.1480 in early Asian trading Monday as the dollar strengthens following President Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war on Iran, escalating the conflict. Over the weekend, US forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites; Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed the facilities were “totally obliterated” and warned of harsher attacks unless Iran seeks peace. The escalation supports safe-haven demand for the dollar, pressuring EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, the ECB cut rates for the eighth time this year but signaled a pause in July. President Lagarde said cuts are nearing an end, which may help limit euro losses.
Resistance is located at 1.1530, while support is seen at 1.1450
| R1: 1.1530 | S1: 1.1450 |
| R2: 1.1590 | S2: 1.1415 |
| R3: 1.1660 | S3: 1.1390 |
The yen fell past 146 on Monday, its lowest in over five weeks, as the US dollar gained on safe-haven demand after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites escalated Middle East tensions. Domestically, Japan’s manufacturing sector grew in June for the first time since May 2024, and services expanded for a third straight month, showing economic resilience.
The key resistance is at $148.15 meanwhile the major support is located at $146.15.
| R1: 148.15 | S1: 146.15 |
| R2: 149.40 | S2: 145.45 |
| R3: 151.90 | S3: 144.85 |
Gold traded near $3,360 per ounce in choppy conditions on Monday, as investors closely watched developments in the intensifying Middle East conflict following U.S. involvement in Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Over the weekend, U.S. forces targeted Iran’s three main nuclear facilities, with President Donald Trump warning of further action unless Tehran agrees to peace. The eruption of war between Israel and Iran has added new fuel to a rally that has pushed gold prices up nearly 30% this year.
Resistance is seen at $3,395, while support holds at $3,316.
| R1: 3395 | S1: 3316 |
| R2: 3405 | S2: 3285 |
| R3: 3430 | S3: 3255 |
GBP/USD fell to around 1.3405 during Monday’s Asian session as safe-haven flows strengthened the US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Fears of Iranian retaliation after US airstrikes on three nuclear sites lifted demand for the Greenback. Trump said Iran’s facilities were “totally obliterated” and warned of stronger attacks unless peace is reached. Iran vowed to respond, saying it “reserves all options.”
Investors await June PMI data from the UK and US due later Monday. The Pound remains under pressure after UK retail sales dropped 2.7% MoM in May, well below the expected 0.5% decline and April’s revised 1.3% gain.
The BoE held rates at 4.25% last Thursday. Governor Bailey said rates are on a gradual downward path but warned of global unpredictability. Reuters expects 25 bps cuts in both August and Q4.
Resistance is seen at 1.3500, while support holds at 1.3415.
| R1: 1.3500 | S1: 1.3415 |
| R2: 1.3600 | S2: 1.3380 |
| R3: 1.3700 | S3: 1.3250 |
Silver (XAG/USD) rose near $36.10 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak as rising Middle East tensions increased safe-haven demand. The gain followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites Sunday. Iran vowed to respond, while Trump warned any retaliation would be met with greater force.
Escalation risks continue to support silver. Additionally, Fed Governor Waller signaled a possible rate cut as early as July. Dovish Fed comments and lower rates tend to increase silver demand by making it more affordable globally.
The first resistance is seen at 37.50, while the support starts at 35.40.
| R1: 37.50 | S1: 35.40 |
| R2: 39.00 | S2: 34.85 |
| R3: 41.00 | S3: 33.80 |
The US dollar strengthened on Friday after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and signaled potential EU tariffs, increasing safe-haven demand.
The dollar weakened on Thursday after Fed minutes revealed policymakers see rate cuts as likely later this year, pushing Treasury yields lower and lifting the euro and pound.
Detail Commodities Slip as Markets Brace for FOMC Minutes (07.09.2025)EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1700 ahead of the FOMC minutes, while the Japanese yen weakened past 147 for a third session as tensions over US-Japan trade talks deepened.
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