Weak U.S. Data Supports Safe Haven Demand (06.05.2025)

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1400 Ahead of ECB Decision

The EUR/USD pair trades slightly above 1.1400 early Thursday as markets await the ECB’s expected 25 bps rate cut, which would mark its seventh consecutive cut, lowering the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.00%. Softer Eurozone inflation supports easing.

The U.S. dollar stays weak after disappointing ISM Services PMI and ADP jobs data (+37K), with the focus now on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. Markets also await ECB President Lagarde’s comments on the rate outlook and EU–US trade talks.

The key resistance is located at 1.1460 and the first support stands at 1.1320.

Yen Holds Gains as U.S. Data Weighs on Dollar

The Japanese yen traded near 142.9 on Thursday, steady after a 1% gain on Wednesday driven by broad U.S. dollar weakness following soft jobs and services data.

Japan’s real wages fell for a fourth month in April, with inflation outpacing earnings, raising concerns over the economic outlook. Despite this, BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed their readiness to raise rates if inflation and growth conditions are met.

The The key resistance is at $144.40 meanwhile the major support is located at $142.50.

Gold Holds Near $3,370 as Fed Bets Rise

Gold hovered near $3,370 on Thursday, supported by safe-haven demand after soft U.S. services and ADP jobs data reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.

Investor caution deepened as Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum and described China’s President Xi Jinping as “particularly difficult” in trade talks. Fed officials remained cautious despite Trump's calls for easing. Markets now await Friday’s U.S. jobs report for further policy guidance.

The first critical support for gold is seen at $3320 and the first resistance is located at $3385.

Weak U.S. Data Limits GBP/USD Downside

GBP/USD eased to around 1.3550 in Thursday’s Asian session, retreating on a U.S. dollar rebound. However, weak U.S. data may cap further downside: May’s ISM Services PMI fell to 49.9, and ADP jobs data showed only 37K new hires, prompting Trump to call the Fed “too late” and push for rate cuts.

In the UK, stronger PMI figures supported the pound, with Composite PMI at 50.3 and Services PMI at 50.9. UK exporters also welcomed Trump’s move to delay a planned steel tariff hike.

The first critical support for gold is seen at 1.3425 and the first resistance is located at 1.3600.

Silver Holds Near Highs on Weak U.S. Data

Silver hovered around $34.50 per ounce on Thursday, supported by disappointing U.S. economic data and rising trade tensions. The ADP report showed only 37,000 jobs were added in May, marking the weakest gain in over two years. The ISM Services PMI also signaled contraction, with new business falling and input costs increasing, likely due to recent tariffs.

President Trump continued to urge the Federal Reserve to cut rates, although policymakers have remained cautious. On the trade front, Trump said reaching a deal with China’s President Xi Jinping is proving extremely difficult, which further dampened market sentiment.

The first critical support for gold is seen at 33.65 and the first resistance is located at 34.90.