The Chicago Business Barometer, commonly known as the Chicago PMI, declined to 36.9 in December 2024, down from 40.2 in November and significantly below the market expectation of 42.5.
The Chicago Business Barometer, commonly known as the Chicago PMI, declined to 36.9 in December 2024, down from 40.2 in November and significantly below the market expectation of 42.5. This marks the 13th consecutive month of contraction in Chicago's economic activity and represents the sharpest monthly decline since May.
New orders experienced a steep drop, falling by 13.5 points to the second-lowest level since May 2020. Over half of the survey respondents reported a decrease in new orders, a scenario last observed in June 2020, which highlighted a significant weakness in demand.
The ongoing contraction in the Chicago PMI underscores persistent challenges in the regional economy, with declining new orders and subdued business sentiment pointing to continued headwinds as the year concludes.
Global markets traded cautiously as shifting Federal Reserve expectations and easing geopolitical risks continued to shape sentiment. President Trump warned he'll bomb Oman if it stands in Washington's way, as reports suggest Iran and Oman are moving toward a deal on Strait of Hormuz control.
Global markets started the week with the dollar under pressure as softer U.S. retail sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
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Cooling US Data Weakens Dollar Amid Energy Risks (17 – 21 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under renewed pressure as softer inflation, retail sales, and employment data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dollar Index traded around 99.61, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Gold and silver extended their gains as the shift in Fed expectations supported precious metals, while the euro and pound benefited from the dollar’s declining yield advantage.
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