The Chicago Business Barometer, commonly known as the Chicago PMI, declined to 36.9 in December 2024, down from 40.2 in November and significantly below the market expectation of 42.5.
The Chicago Business Barometer, commonly known as the Chicago PMI, declined to 36.9 in December 2024, down from 40.2 in November and significantly below the market expectation of 42.5. This marks the 13th consecutive month of contraction in Chicago's economic activity and represents the sharpest monthly decline since May.
New orders experienced a steep drop, falling by 13.5 points to the second-lowest level since May 2020. Over half of the survey respondents reported a decrease in new orders, a scenario last observed in June 2020, which highlighted a significant weakness in demand.
The ongoing contraction in the Chicago PMI underscores persistent challenges in the regional economy, with declining new orders and subdued business sentiment pointing to continued headwinds as the year concludes.
Dollar strength remained a key pressure across major currencies and precious metals as Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations for further monetary tightening.
Renewed expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening kept the dollar supported as policymakers continued to warn about persistent inflation risks.
Fed, BOJ Hikes Lift Dollar as Oil Falls (21 – 25 September)Global markets entered the week balancing tighter monetary policy against signs of easing Middle East energy risks. The Federal Reserve remains the main macro driver after raising rates to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaling that another increase remains possible this year. The Dollar Index advanced to 100.4, while Treasury yields remained elevated. The Bank of Japan also tightened policy, raising rates to 1.25%, although dissent within the board suggested that future increases could come at a slower pace.
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