The PCE price index increased by 0.1% in November, with a similar 0.1% rise when excluding food and energy.
Real disposable personal income (DPI) grew by 0.2%, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.3%. Goods prices climbed by 0.7%, and services prices increased by 0.1%. Compared to October, the overall PCE price index saw a 0.1% rise in November, with goods prices increasing by less than 0.1% and services prices by 0.2%. Food and energy prices both rose by 0.2%, and excluding these categories, the PCE price index still showed a 0.1% uptick.
Year-over-year, the PCE price index for November rose by 2.4%. Over the same period, goods prices fell by 0.4%, while services prices increased by 3.8%. Food prices were up 1.4%, and energy prices decreased by 4.0%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index experienced a 2.8% annual increase.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Global markets traded cautiously as shifting Federal Reserve expectations and easing geopolitical risks continued to shape sentiment. President Trump warned he'll bomb Oman if it stands in Washington's way, as reports suggest Iran and Oman are moving toward a deal on Strait of Hormuz control.
Global markets started the week with the dollar under pressure as softer U.S. retail sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
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Cooling US Data Weakens Dollar Amid Energy Risks (17 – 21 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under renewed pressure as softer inflation, retail sales, and employment data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dollar Index traded around 99.61, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Gold and silver extended their gains as the shift in Fed expectations supported precious metals, while the euro and pound benefited from the dollar’s declining yield advantage.
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