The preliminary seasonally adjusted initial claims statistic for the week ending December 14 was 220,000, which was 22,000 lower than the revised amount of 242,000 for the prior week. Compared to the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250, the 4-week moving average increased by 1,250 to 225,500.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2% for the week ending December 7, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The revised total of 1,879,000 seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims for the previous week was reduced by 5,000 to 1,874,000 claims for the same week.
The prior week’s figure was revised downward by 7,000, from 1,886,000 to 1,879,000. The 4-week moving average for insured unemployment claims declined by 6,000 to 1,880,250, compared to the revised average of 1,886,250 from the previous week.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
Markets Balance Between Relief and RiskGlobal markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.
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