Japan's 10-year yield rose to 2.74%, a one-week high, as higher oil prices and a 40-year low in the yen reinforced expectations of further BOJ tightening.
Traders also awaited a JPY 300 billion bond auction after June's trade deficit.
The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.63%, a two-month high, as higher oil prices supported inflation concerns. ADP hiring slowed for a fourth straight month, while markets priced over a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | GBP | CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.500M | -1.692M |
The euro held above $1.14 ahead of Thursday's ECB decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged after June's hike, although markets still price two more increases by year-end, starting as early as September. Hopes for renewed US-Iran talks also remained in focus as oil prices continued to influence the inflation outlook.
The first resistance is at 1.1430, while support begins at 1.1380.
| R1: 1.1430 | S1: 1.1380 |
| R2: 1.1450 | S2: 1.1360 |
| R3: 1.1477 | S3: 1.1330 |
Gold approached $4,200 as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus. Trump dismissed the prospect of near-term talks with Iran and warned of further strikes, while disruptions in the Red Sea and attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline added to supply concerns. Slower ADP hiring also left markets pricing over a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
First resistance is at $4,160, with initial support near $4,100.
| R1: 4160 | S1: 4100 |
| R2: 4200 | S2: 4050 |
| R3: 4287 | S3: 4000 |
The yen weakened beyond 163 per dollar, its lowest level since October 1986, keeping markets on alert for possible intervention. Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, weighing on Japan's import-dependent economy, while a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields widened rate gaps and encouraged carry trades.
Fiscal concerns over new spending plans and the BOJ's cautious policy approach added further pressure, as June's trade balance slipped back into deficit.
Initial resistance stands at 163.30, while the first support is at 162.80.
| R1: 163.30 | S1: 162.80 |
| R2: 163.70 | S2: 162.40 |
| R3: 164.00 | S3: 162.00 |
Sterling slipped below $1.34, touching a weekly low as traders digested Andy Burnham's first cabinet appointments. His decision to name John Healey as Chancellor lifted expectations for higher defence spending, although both emphasized fiscal discipline. June public borrowing also came in below forecasts.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3430, with support around 1.3340.
| R1: 1.3430 | S1: 1.3340 |
| R2: 1.3480 | S2: 1.3300 |
| R3: 1.3540 | S3: 1.3260 |
Silver climbed toward $60 as stronger oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus. Trump's comments on Iran, disruptions in the Red Sea, attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline, and softer ADP employment data all supported expectations of over a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $60.50, while support is located around $58.50.
| R1: 60.50 | S1: 58.50 |
| R2: 63.00 | S2: 57.20 |
| R3: 65.10 | S3: 55.80 |
Oil inventories are nearing depletion, increasing supply risks and supporting prices. Aramco estimates less than 6 billion barrels remain after over 1 billion barrels were drawn this year, while the IEA is preparing a 100-million-barrel release. The US 10-year Treasury yield stabilized near 5.31% on Wednesday, close to 24-year peaks, as markets awaited the Fed's minutes.
The dollar index steadied around 102 on Tuesday, near its highest since April 2025, as the euro weakened on French fiscal and political concerns and Spain's upcoming snap election, yet stabilized near 1.1220 after touching its lowest level since May 2025.
Detail
Weak US Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets (5 – 9 October)Weak US labor market data shifted the monetary policy outlook after September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, well below the 90,000 forecast, while prior months were revised lower. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3.0%, cutting the probability of an October Fed hike to around 20%. The Dollar Index fell below 102 after the report, but remained on course for a third consecutive weekly gain.
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