Weekly Analysis

Gold hovered near $3,250, on track for its worst week in two months as safe-haven demand eased. Trump signaled hopes for a trade deal with China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The euro stayed above $1.13 after April inflation data beat forecasts, reinforcing ECB rate cut bets.

The dollar rose above 99.5, supported by Trump’s trade reassurances and softer stance on Powell. The euro closed at $1.1350, up 5% this month after the ECB cut rates to 2.25%. The yen weakened to 143.65 as trade optimism grew, while Tokyo inflation rose to 3.4%.

The U.S. dollar index ended near a three-year low, pressured by trade policy uncertainty, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and cooling inflation. The euro briefly hit its highest since January 2022 before easing after a 25 bps ECB rate cut and weak growth outlook.

The U.S. dollar index fell to 99, a near three-year low, as trade tensions intensified. China hiked tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% after Washington raised rates to 145% on Chinese imports. The euro jumped above $1.14, up 3.5% for the week, while the pound rose past $1.30 on strong UK GDP. The yen also gained on safe-haven demand and a Treasurie selloff.

The dollar index stayed above 102, supported by strong U.S. jobs data but pressured by rising trade tensions. China’s new 34% tariff raised recession fears and increased Fed rate cut expectations.

The US dollar ended the week higher, supported by the Federal Reserve’s upward revision to inflation forecasts. However, Thursday brought a slight pullback as concerns over economic growth and proposed tariffs from President Trump weighed on sentiment.

The US dollar index rose toward 104 as the Fed signaled two cuts this year but saw no urgency. Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs. The euro eased after Lagarde warned of weaker growth. The pound dipped below $1.30 as the BoE stayed cautious. The yen weakened to 149 as inflation eased but stayed above expectations.

The dollar index held steady as markets balanced trade war concerns against weak consumer confidence. Optimism improved following progress in averting a U.S. government shutdown.