Weekly Analysis

The US dollar is set to end the week lower despite strong June jobs data (147K jobs, 4.1% unemployment) as fiscal and trade uncertainties weighed on sentiment. The euro stayed just below $1.18, supported by optimism around ECB policy and cautious EU stance before US tariff decisions. The pound held steady after PM Starmer backed Chancellor Reeves, with markets still expecting a BoE cut in August. The yen is on track for weekly gains, supported by strong household spending data and a softer dollar amid trade uncertainty.

The dollar index fell to 97.1, its lowest since Feb 2022, on Fed cut bets and Powell’s dovish tone. US PCE fell 0.3%, weakening the dollar against the euro and pound. The euro rose above $1.17, supported by the ceasefire and Germany’s budget plans. The pound climbed above $1.374 on BoE cut signals. The yen held near two-week highs on dollar weakness and firm Japan inflation.

The US dollar index slipped late in the week but ended higher on safe-haven demand as Israel-Iran tensions grew. Trump gave Iran two weeks to halt its nuclear program. The Fed held rates and signaled two cuts in 2025, warning tariffs could lift inflation. EUR/USD was flat. The dollar rose early, then eased, helping the euro recover. Lagarde’s comments reinforced a hawkish ECB outlook. The pound weakened after the BoE held rates with a split vote. The yen rebounded toward 145 on strong inflation data but still posted weekly losses.

The US dollar index rebounded above 98.2 on Friday but remains down for the week. Gains followed Israel’s strike on Iran, increasing safe-haven demand. Earlier weakness came from soft US inflation and trade tensions, raising Fed rate cut expectations. The euro fell to $1.15 after hitting a 3.5-year high, as ECB signaled a pause and the Fed eyed cuts. The yen rose to 143 per dollar on safe-haven flows, with BOJ signaling possible hikes. The pound dipped to $1.35 after weak UK GDP and jobs data, though supported by a softer dollar.

The US dollar index rose over 0.4% to above 99.1 on Friday after May’s jobs report showed 139,000 new jobs, beating expectations of 126,000. Wages also grew faster than expected, though a downward revision to April’s figures limited optimism. Despite Friday's gains, the dollar is still headed for a small weekly loss due to broader economic slowdown concerns and Fed uncertainty. The euro dropped below $1.14 after the ECB’s 25bps rate cut and downgraded inflation forecasts. President Lagarde suggested the easing cycle may be near its end, while ECB’s Stournaras said the eurozone likely achieved a “soft landing.” The British pound climbed to $1.355, nearing a three-year high, backed by strong UK data and a new £15 billion defense plan under AUKUS. The yen weakened toward 144 as traders processed weak Japanese spending figures and awaited the US jobs report. BOJ Governor Ueda reiterated a possible rate hike if economic forecasts are met.

The US Dollar Index hovered near 99.4 as weak GDP and revived Trump tariffs added uncertainty. Fed’s Daly signaled possible 2025 cuts but urged patience. The euro steadied near $1.13 on soft inflation in Spain and France, increasing ECB cut expectations. The pound stayed around $1.35 amid UK trade optimism and pension reform plans. Weak US data supported Fed cut bets. The yen weakened despite strong Tokyo inflation, with some support from safe-haven demand. A BOJ hike is expected in July.

The dollar index held near 99.5 on Friday, its lowest in over two weeks, as Trump’s proposed 50% tariffs on EU goods and widening U.S. fiscal concerns pressured sentiment. The euro touched $1.137 before easing to $1.13, set for a weekly gain, supported by solid German data but capped by weak PMI and ECB rate cut bets. The yen rose to 143.6, gaining over 1% this week after core inflation hit a two-year high at 3.5%. The pound climbed above $1.347 on strong UK retail sales, improved confidence, and falling energy prices, though inflation at 3.5% kept BoE cut expectations in play.

The U.S. dollar held near 100.8, heading for a 0.6% weekly gain as weak data increased Fed cut bets. The euro rebounded to $1.12 on firm inflation and ECB cut hopes. The pound hovered near $1.32 as UK jobs data raised BoE cut odds. The yen rose toward 145 despite Japan’s 0.2% GDP drop, with the BoJ staying cautious.