Weekly Analysis

Global markets faced significant upward pressure on yields and energy prices this week as the conflict in the Middle East entered its third week. The US Dollar Index surged above 100.3, its highest since May 2025, fueled by safe-haven flows and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's announcement of the largest planned strike wave against Iran to date. Brent crude breached the $105 threshold following strikes on Kharg Island and warnings that 90% of Iran’s export facilities could be targeted.

Global sentiment was dominated this week by the second week of the war with Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude prices above $100/barrel. Despite a catastrophic US labor report showing a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, safe-haven demand pushed the US Dollar Index to 99.1. The energy shock has ignited fears of "stagflation," particularly in Europe and Japan, as soaring fuel costs threaten to reverse recent disinflationary trends.

Global markets began the week in a state of high alert following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Global markets experienced a sharp shift in sentiment this week following a landmark US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s "reciprocal" tariffs.

Global markets opened the week in thin trading conditions as US markets remained closed for Presidents’ Day. The US dollar stayed under pressure, hovering just below the 97 level, following last week’s softer inflation data that reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

Global markets began the week with the US dollar under pressure, falling under 97.5 for a second consecutive session. The greenback’s decline was fueled by a combination of improved risk sentiment and expectations of stable Federal Reserve policy with potential rate cuts on the horizon. Investors remained cautious as they awaited a backlog of delayed US economic data, including employment and inflation figures.

Global markets began the week with the US dollar slipping toward 97, marking its weakest levels in four months. Heightened geopolitical risks and trade tensions, combined with speculation about the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, have pressured the US dollar.

Global markets began the week with the US dollar holding its ground near 99.3, on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Strong US economic indicators, including resilient manufacturing and labor data, have pushed market expectations for initial rate cuts out to June or later.