Hot US Inflation and Oil Pressure Markets (09.11.2026)

Inflation and interest rate expectations took center stage as surging energy costs and stronger U.S. producer prices reshaped the policy outlook. The dollar index held above 99 as surprisingly hotter U.S. producer inflation pushed Fed rate hike odds to 71%. 

Treasury yields also climbed, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.97%, while oil surged above $100 amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and concerns over inflationary pressure.The euro softened toward 1.16 despite another ECB rate hike, while sterling fell toward 1.3510 as stronger Fed tightening expectations supported the dollar. Gold extended its decline toward $4,360 and silver approached $64 as higher Treasury yields and rate expectations weighed on precious metals. In contrast, the yen remained near seven-month highs as investors positioned for an expected Bank of Japan rate hike next week.

Euro Softens Toward $1.16

The euro eased toward $1.16 following the European Central Bank's second interest rate hike since the US-Iran conflict began, despite upgraded economic forecasts. Escalating energy costs, driven by Brent crude near $105 and European natural gas reaching multi-year peaks, sustained upward inflation pressure. This prompted markets to price in another ECB hike by December. A resilient US dollar stayed firm as strong producer price data pushed Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities above 70%.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1560.

Gold Extends Slide Toward $4,360

Gold hovered near $4,360 per ounce on Friday after sliding almost 2% in the previous session, as traders awaited key CPI data. Hotter PPI figures recently pushed Fed rate hike probabilities to 71%, dampening gold's appeal. Surging oil prices linked to ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising Treasury yields following a sluggish debt buyback added pressure, leaving bullion on path for a third consecutive weekly drop exceeding 2%.

First resistance is seen at $4400, with initial support near $4300.

Yen Strengthens Past 153

The Japanese yen hovered around 153.4 per dollar on Thursday, trading near seven-month peaks prior to expected central bank tightening next week. Bank of Japan policymakers are widely anticipated to increase the benchmark rate to 1.25%, reaching a three-decade high following the previous rate adjustment delivered in June.

First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.

Pound Drops to 1.3510

The British pound declined to 1.3510, pressured by growing policy divergence. Strong US producer price data lifted Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, while Bank of England leadership signaled caution. Brent crude exceeding $105 amid Middle East supply disruptions further strained the UK economy. Markets now await US consumer inflation figures to evaluate the 60% probability of Fed tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Slides Toward $64

Silver traded near $64 on Friday after dropping over 5% in the previous session, as traders awaited incoming US consumer inflation data. Stronger producer price figures recently pushed Fed rate hike probabilities to 71%. Surging energy costs linked to the US-Iran conflict and rising Treasury yields compounded pressure, setting silver up for a third consecutive weekly drop.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.