All Eyes on the Federal Reserve (07.29.2026)

Global markets traded cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision as investors weighed renewed Middle East tensions against expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. 

Higher oil prices kept inflation concerns alive, supporting the U.S. dollar and weighing on major currencies and precious metals. Traders are also looking ahead to policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England for further direction on global monetary policy.

Euro Stays Under Pressure

EUR/USD fluctuated near 1.1387, constrained by a broader downtrend as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Hawkish Fed expectations continue supporting the dollar, while ECB President Lagarde tempered rate-hike bets, limiting euro gains. Although de-escalating Middle East friction reduced safe-haven dollar demand, the currency pair remains pinned below major moving average resistance.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1410 while the support starts from 1.1340.

Gold Holds Losses Near $4,020

Gold prices hovered around $4,020, holding recent losses as a rebound in crude oil, following renewed Middle East hostilities, kept inflation and interest rate risks in focus. U.S. forces intercepted an unexpected Iranian strike across the region. Traders now await the Federal Reserve's rate announcement. Although a pause is widely anticipated, markets continue pricing roughly a 35% probability of an immediate hike and an 80% chance of tightening by September.

First resistance is seen at $4060, with initial support near $3990.

Yen Trapped Near 40-Year Lows

The Japanese yen hovered around 163.7 per dollar, lingering near four-decade lows as markets await the Federal Reserve's rate decision. While a pause is expected, traders still price a 35% chance of an immediate hike and nearly 80% odds for September. Meanwhile, fresh U.S.–Iran conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices higher. The Bank of Japan is projected to stand firm on Friday while maintaining space for future rate increases, as verbal warnings offer minimal relief.

Initial resistance stands at 164.00, while the first support is at 163.20.

Sterling Consolidates Near 1.3288

GBP/USD range-traded near 1.3288 while markets anticipate the upcoming Bank of England decision, where rates are widely expected to remain at 3.75%. Although Middle East geopolitical developments threaten energy prices, a resilient labor market and UK inflation cooling to a 15-month low of 2.6% continue to offer underlying support for the currency pair.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3240.

Silver Holds Losses Near $57

Silver traded near $57, holding its recent decline as rebounding oil prices following renewed Middle East clashes reignited inflation and interest rate concerns. U.S. forces intercepted an unexpected Iranian attack across the region. Markets now await the Federal Reserve's rate announcement, where a pause is expected, though traders still price a 35% chance of an immediate hike and an 80% likelihood for September.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.25, while support is located around $56.50.