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Ceasefire Rises Euro, Metals, and Risk Appetite (04.08.2026)

Markets shifted into a risk-on mode as easing geopolitical tensions supported broader asset gains. 

EUR/USD climbed toward 1.1670 as reduced safe-haven demand weakened the dollar, while the Japanese yen strengthened and sterling rebounded on improved sentiment. Precious metals also rallied strongly, with gold surging above $4,800 and silver reaching multi-week highs. The move was driven by a conditional ceasefire agreement, which eased immediate market fears and encouraged investors to rotate away from defensive positions. Overall, sentiment improved significantly, though markets remain sensitive to further geopolitical developments.

Time Cur. Event Forecast      Previous
15:30USDCrude Oil Inventories-1.000M5.451M
18:00USD10-Year Note Auction-4.217%
19:00USDFOMC Meeting Minutes  

Euro Trades Toward 1.1670

The EUR/USD pair rose to approximately 1.1670 on Wednesday. The euro gained ground as geopolitical tensions cooled following Donald Trump’s agreement to a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which diminished safe-haven demand for the dollar.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1700, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1620.

R1: 1.1700S1: 1.1620
R2: 1.1750S2: 1.1570
R3: 1.1800S3: 1.1400

Gold Climbs Above $4,800

Gold climbed over 2% on Wednesday, surpassing $4,800 per ounce. The surge continued after Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian infrastructure to provide a two-week window for negotiations, momentarily cooling immediate geopolitical tensions in the region.

First resistance is seen at $4850, with initial support near $4740.

R1: 4850S1: 4740
R2: 4920S2: 4690
R3: 5000S3: 4550

Yen Strengthens Past 158.5

The Japanese yen rallied past 158.5 per dollar on Wednesday, recovering from the 160 level seen earlier this week. Gains followed a two week ceasefire agreement between the US, Iran, and Israel, which improved risk sentiment and paved the way for negotiations.

Initial resistance stands at 159, while the first support is located at 157.90.

R1: 159.00S1: 157.90
R2: 159.80S2: 157.10
R3: 161.00S3: 155.80

Pound Rose Past 1.33

The British pound climbed from the low 1.32 area to the high 1.33 range, gaining strongly against the dollar. Easing geopolitical tensions sparked a shift toward risk-on positioning, weighing on the US dollar.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3460, with resistance around 1.3350.

R1: 1.3460S1: 1.3350
R2: 1.3510S2: 1.3280
R3: 1.3600S3: 1.3190

Silver Rallies to Three-Week High

Silver jumped over 4% on Wednesday, climbing past $76 per ounce. The rally followed Donald Trump’s announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire. This easing of geopolitical tension sparked a sharp recovery in the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.25 while support is located around $75.

R1: 77.25S1: 75.00
R2: 79.50S2: 73.40
R3: 82.00S3: 69.00
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