Major currencies and commodities traded cautiously on Thursday as markets awaited crucial US labor data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move.
EUR/USD held near 1.1800 after weak ADP employment figures increased bets on rate cuts, while the Japanese yen stabilized around 143.7 amid trade optimism and dollar softness. Gold remained supported at $3,360 on hopes of further trade deals and rising geopolitical risks, and silver extended gains to $36.70, lifted by easing trade tensions.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 12:30 | USD | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,960K | 1,974K |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 240K | 236K |
| 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 111K | 139K |
| 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.30% | 4.20% |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 50.8 | 49.9 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) | 68.7 | |
| 15:00 | USD | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks |
EUR/USD held steady for a second session near 1.1800 in early Thursday trading. The pair could gain momentum as the US dollar weakens on rising expectations of a Fed rate cut after ADP data disappointed.
June’s ADP Employment Change showed a surprise 33,000 drop, its first decline in over two years, well below forecasts of 95,000. May’s figure was also revised down to a 29,000 gain.
Attention now turns to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Services PMI, and S&P Global US PMI.
Key levels: Resistance at 1.1830; support at 1.1730.
| R1: 1.1830 | S1: 1.1730 |
| R2: 1.1910 | S2: 1.1690 |
| R3: 1.2015 | S3: 1.1630 |
The Japanese yen held near 143.7 against the dollar on Thursday, stabilizing after recent losses, supported by improved trade sentiment and a weaker greenback.
Japan reiterated its aim for a fair trade deal with the US, though Trump raised pressure by threatening tariffs up to 35% on Japanese imports over low US rice and car sales. Meanwhile, a finalized US-Vietnam deal added to market optimism.
The yen also found support as investors awaited key US jobs data, which could increase the odds of a Fed rate cut.
Key levels: Resistance at 145.70; support at 143.55.
| R1: 145.70 | S1: 143.55 |
| R2: 146.20 | S2: 142.45 |
| R3: 147.00 | S3: 141.00 |
Gold traded around $3,360 per ounce on Thursday, supported by news of a US-Vietnam trade deal and ongoing dollar weakness.
The deal, which eases some tariffs on Vietnamese goods, increased hopes for further bilateral agreements. Meanwhile, softer US labor data, ADP figures showed the first payrolls drop in over two years, strengthened the case for Fed easing.
Tensions in the Middle East, with Iran halting cooperation with the UN nuclear agency, added a touch of geopolitical risk.
Resistance is at $3,395, while support holds at $3,330.
| R1: 3395 | S1: 3330 |
| R2: 3430 | S2: 3300 |
| R3: 3500 | S3: 3250 |
GBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3625 in Asian trading, pressured by a sharp selloff in UK government bonds and growing fiscal concerns.
Gilts suffered their biggest drop since October 2022 after the government’s decision to cut welfare benefits and mounting doubts over the Chancellor’s political future.
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC, noted: “The drop isn’t limited to the British Pound, UK gilts are also under heavy selling. It seems to be a broader crisis of confidence in the Labour government.”
Resistance is at 1.3675, while support holds at 1.3570.
| R1: 1.3675 | S1: 1.3570 |
| R2: 1.3760 | S2: 1.3430 |
| R3: 1.3800 | S3: 1.3380 |
Silver hovered near $36.70 on Thursday after rising 1.4% in the previous session, supported by easing trade tensions and stronger expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Markets are now watching key US economic releases to see whether silver can sustain its upward momentum.
Resistance is at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
| R1: 37.50 | S1: 35.40 |
| R2: 39.00 | S2: 34.85 |
| R3: 41.00 | S3: 33.80 |
The U.S. dollar extended its gains on Tuesday, weighing on major currencies and precious metals as markets digested recent trade developments and looked ahead to this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Detail
Dollar Down Weekly; Euro, Silver, and Stocks Rise Before Fed (28 July - 1 August)The dollar index rose to 97.8 but ended the week lower, as traders weighed trade progress and awaited the Fed’s decision. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, with two cuts priced in by year-end. The euro neared $1.175, its highest since 2021, supported by the ECB’s rate pause and geopolitical concerns. The yen edged up after a 15% tariff cap on Japanese goods, while persistent inflation kept BOJ hike expectations alive. The pound slipped to $1.347 as weak UK data fueled bets for a BoE cut in August.
Detail Euro Gains, Risk Appetite Returns (07.28.2025)U.S.–EU trade deal eased global tensions, lifting the euro and increasing risk appetite.
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