Global markets traded cautiously ahead of key central bank meetings, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan for fresh policy signals.
The U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields held steady near 101.5 and 4.64% as markets priced in a one-third chance of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike. The U.S. dollar remained supported by expectations of tighter monetary policy and lingering uncertainty over U.S.–Iran relations, weighing on major currencies and precious metals. Traders are also assessing resilient economic data and geopolitical developments for clues on the next move across global markets.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 14:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 92.1 | 91.2 |
EUR/USD hovered near 1.1374, remaining trapped in a broader bearish trend near multi-month lows. Fluctuating U.S.–Iran headlines continue to drive safe-haven dollar demand, while elevated energy costs weigh on the Eurozone inflation outlook. Supported by resilient economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, the dollar index remains firm near 101.28, despite RSI indicating moderating downside momentum.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1410 while the support starts from 1.1340.
| R1: 1.1410 | S1: 1.1340 |
| R2: 1.1450 | S2: 1.1300 |
| R3: 1.1490 | S3: 1.1320 |
Gold fell to around $4,050, surrendering recent gains as market uncertainty built over a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Traders are pricing in a roughly 35% chance of a rate increase, with Citadel Securities suggesting a hike would support Chair Warsh's anti-inflation stance. Despite President Trump reporting constructive talks with Iran, ongoing warnings of resumed military strikes failed to support bullion prices.
First resistance is seen at $4090, with initial support near $4020.
| R1: 4090 | S1: 4020 |
| R2: 4150 | S2: 3980 |
| R3: 4280 | S3: 3940 |
The Japanese yen hovered around 163.7 per dollar, lingering near four-decade lows as market speculation of an imminent Fed rate hike supported the dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged this Friday while keeping option doors open for future policy tightening. Although President Trump cited positive diplomatic talks with Iran, lower oil prices and verbal intervention from Japanese officials have failed to provide substantial relief for the currency.
Initial resistance stands at 164.00, while the first support is at 163.20.
| R1: 164.00 | S1: 163.20 |
| R2: 165.10 | S2: 162.80 |
| R3: 166.00 | S3: 162.40 |
GBP/USD fluctuated near 1.3295 as cautious risk sentiment supported the dollar ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings. While both central banks are projected to hold rates steady, traders see a 31% probability of a hawkish Fed surprise alongside expectations for a September BOE rate increase. Stronger UK retail figures and expanding business activity provided underlying support for sterling, though tech-driven market anxiety continues backing the dollar.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3250.
| R1: 1.3340 | S1: 1.3250 |
| R2: 1.3390 | S2: 1.3210 |
| R3: 1.3480 | S3: 1.3160 |
Silver fell toward $57 per ounce, remaining under pressure as traders weighed a roughly 35% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Citadel Securities noted a rate increase would reinforce Chair Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials. Even as President Trump reported constructive discussions with Iran, silver prices failed to gain traction, weighed down by ongoing warnings that military strikes could resume if negotiations founder.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.25, while support is located around $56.90.
| R1: 58.25 | S1: 56.90 |
| R2: 60.00 | S2: 57.50 |
| R3: 61.50 | S3: 55.00 |
Ceasefire Pause Eases Oil and Inflation Fears (27 – 31 July)Global markets began the week on a more positive footing after a pause in US and Iranian military operations reduced immediate concerns over energy supplies and inflation. The United States quietly suspended its nearly two-week strike campaign against Iran late Friday, while Tehran halted retaliatory operations and entered discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The developments pushed oil prices sharply lower, supporting precious metals and government bonds after weeks of pressure from rising energy costs.
Detail Fed in Focus Amid Easing Tensions (07.27.2026)Global markets began the week on a firmer footing as a pause in U.S.–Iran hostilities eased concerns over energy supplies and inflation.
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