Monetary policy expectations remained the main driver on Thursday, with the euro advancing toward 1.1640 ahead of a widely anticipated ECB rate hike.
Sterling also moved higher as surging energy costs reinforced expectations for further Bank of England tightening, while the yen stayed near seven-month highs ahead of next week’s expected BOJ move. Gold held around $4,400 and silver remained above $67 as traders awaited fresh U.S. producer and consumer inflation data for clues on the Fed’s next steps.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 2.65% | 2.40% | |
| 12:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | - | - | |
| 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales (Aug) | 3.98M | 4.06M | |
| 17:00 | USD | 30-Year Bond Auction | - | 5.216% |

The euro rose toward $1.1640, touching its highest level since late August as investors positioned ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday. Markets anticipate another interest rate increase and a continued data-dependent approach, even as ongoing military conflicts in Iran create further uncertainty for regional inflation trends.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1680 while the support starts from 1.1600.
| R1: 1.1680 | S1: 1.1600 |
| R2: 1.1720 | S2: 1.1550 |
| R3: 1.1760 | S3: 1.1500 |

Gold held near $4,400 per ounce on Thursday, preserving gains from the prior session as market participants awaited incoming US inflation data for direction on future Federal Reserve interest rate moves. Investors are monitoring Thursday's producer price index report, followed by key consumer price figures scheduled for release on Friday.
First resistance is seen at $4440, with initial support near $4390.
| R1: 4440 | S1: 4390 |
| R2: 4470 | S2: 4360 |
| R3: 4500 | S3: 4310 |

The Japanese yen hovered around 153.4 per dollar on Thursday, remaining near seven-month peaks ahead of an anticipated Bank of Japan rate hike next week. Board members are broadly expected to raise the key interest rate to 1.25%, reaching a three-decade high following the central bank's previous tightening action in June.
First resistance is seen at 154.50, with initial support near 152.80.
| R1: 154.50 | S1: 152.80 |
| R2: 156.00 | S2: 151.20 |
| R3: 157.20 | S3: 150.00 |

The British pound rose toward $1.354, sustained by expanding expectations that the Bank of England will pursue additional interest rate increases to counter mounting inflation. Meanwhile, energy markets surged as Brent crude briefly touched $100 per barrel and domestic natural gas hit multi-year highs, driven by intensifying Middle East conflict and heightened supply disruption fears.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3500.
| R1: 1.3570 | S1: 1.3500 |
| R2: 1.3610 | S2: 1.3470 |
| R3: 1.3650 | S3: 1.3430 |

Silver traded above $67 per ounce on Thursday, maintaining recent gains while investors focused on key US inflation reports that could shape future Federal Reserve policy. The August producer price index arrives later today, followed by consumer inflation figures scheduled for release on Friday.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $68.50, while support is located around $64,90.
| R1: 68.50 | S1: 64.90 |
| R2: 69.75 | S2: 63.50 |
| R3: 72.00 | S3: 61.00 |
The dollar index steadied around 102 on Tuesday, near its highest since April 2025, as the euro weakened on French fiscal and political concerns and Spain's upcoming snap election, yet stabilized near 1.1220 after touching its lowest level since May 2025.
Detail
Weak US Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets (5 – 9 October)Weak US labor market data shifted the monetary policy outlook after September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, well below the 90,000 forecast, while prior months were revised lower. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3.0%, cutting the probability of an October Fed hike to around 20%. The Dollar Index fell below 102 after the report, but remained on course for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Detail Safe-Haven Demand Keeps Dollar Firm (10.05.2026)Safe-haven demand and elevated Treasury yields supported the dollar as Middle East tensions kept investors cautious at the start of the week.
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