Markets leaned toward a risk-on tone as easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices supported currencies and tempered inflation expectations.
The euro climbed to a multi-month high near $1.17 as investors scaled back expectations for aggressive ECB tightening, while sterling also strengthened toward recent highs. In contrast, the Japanese yen weakened under pressure from a firmer dollar and rising energy costs. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with gold stabilizing near $4,700 as yields limited gains, while silver retreated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, sentiment improved, though markets remain sensitive to developments around the Middle East and energy markets.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 15:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 15:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| 15:30 | USD | GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 15:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 210K | 202K |
| 20:00 | USD | 30-Year Bond Auction | - | 4.871% |

The euro reached $1.17 as cooling geopolitical tensions improved risk appetite. Sliding oil prices prompted investors to reduce expectations for aggressive ECB interest rate hikes.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1700, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1620.
| R1: 1.1700 | S1: 1.1620 |
| R2: 1.1750 | S2: 1.1570 |
| R3: 1.1800 | S3: 1.1400 |

Gold settled near $4,700 per ounce as investors weighed conflicting Middle East headlines. While supply fears provided support, rising yields and a stronger dollar limited the metal's upside, keeping its recent momentum in check.
First resistance is seen at $4850, with initial support near $4740.
| R1: 4850 | S1: 4740 |
| R2: 4920 | S2: 4690 |
| R3: 5000 | S3: 4550 |

The yen gave back early gains as rising oil prices and a firm dollar pressured the currency. Investors remain focused on the Bank of Japan, anticipating potential shifts toward tighter monetary policy.
Initial resistance stands at 159, while the first support is located at 157.90.
| R1: 159.00 | S1: 157.90 |
| R2: 159.80 | S2: 157.10 |
| R3: 161.00 | S3: 155.80 |

Sterling jumped 1% toward $1.34 as geopolitical risks subsided. With falling energy costs reducing inflationary pressure, investors shifted their focus, leading to a downward revision of interest rate expectations.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3460, with resistance around 1.3350.
| R1: 1.3460 | S1: 1.3350 |
| R2: 1.3510 | S2: 1.3280 |
| R3: 1.3600 | S3: 1.3190 |

Silver retreated to approximately $73.5 per ounce on Thursday following recent volatility. Investors are navigating a fragile Middle East ceasefire complicated by continued clashes and conflicting reports regarding the Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian officials claim terms have been breached and tanker traffic remains stalled, US Vice President JD Vance suggested a reopening could be imminent due to diplomatic progress. These geopolitical uncertainties, coupled with a firmer dollar and climbing bond yields, have maintained downward pressure on the metal.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.25 while support is located around $75.
| R1: 77.25 | S1: 73.00 |
| R2: 79.50 | S2: 71.50 |
| R3: 82.00 | S3: 69.00 |
Markets shifted into a risk-on mode as easing geopolitical tensions supported broader asset gains.
Detail Markets Hold Steady as Dollar Stays Firm (04.07.2026)Markets traded in a tight range as geopolitical tensions and strong U.S. labor data continued to support the dollar.
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