Gold Slips to Four-Week Low Despite Softer Dollar (06.27.2025)

The US Dollar weakened on Friday as speculation grew over potential changes in Fed leadership and future interest rate cuts.

EUR/USD climbed toward 1.1700, its highest since 2021, after President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell and hinted at naming a replacement soon, raising concerns about Fed independence. The yen held near two-week highs on dovish expectations, while gold slipped to a four-week low as investors weighed mixed signals from the Fed. GBP/USD remained above 1.3700, though gains were capped by cautious tones from the Bank of England.

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)	0.1%	%0.1
12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (YoY)	2.6%	2.5%
14:00	USD	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations	5.1%	6.6%

Euro Climbs Toward 1.17 on Fed Uncertainty

EUR/USD extended its rally early Friday, trading near 1.1700, its highest since 2021, driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar. The Greenback weakened following President Donald Trump’s remarks at the NATO summit, where he criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and hinted at naming a replacement by September or October, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pushed back, stressing that monetary policy remains data-driven. In Europe, French President Macron warned of retaliation if the US enforces its proposed 10% tariff, while ECB officials highlighted risks to inflation and growth. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos also suggested the euro’s global role may grow with continued EU reforms.

Resistance is located at 1.1745, while support is seen at 1.1630.

R1: 1.1745	S1: 1.1630
R2: 1.1800	S2: 1.1550
R3: 1.1900	S3: 1.1450

Yen Near Two-Week Highs on Dovish Speculation

The Japanese yen held firm near 144.3, maintaining gains from earlier this week as the dollar remained under pressure. Market speculation over deeper Fed rate cuts intensified after reports suggested President Trump could soon name Powell’s successor, potentially steering policy in a more dovish direction.

The key resistance is at $145.70 meanwhile the major support is located at $143.55.

Gold Slips on Trump’s Statement

Gold dipped to around $3,293 on Friday, approaching a four-week low, even as the dollar eased. The decline comes on uncertainty over the Fed’s next move. While Trump’s potential Fed Chair announcement may signal a pivot to looser policy, investors are still digesting mixed Fed signals and waiting for clarity.

Resistance is seen at $3,355, while support holds at $3,270.

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.37 with BoE Caution

GBP/USD traded around 1.3735 in Friday’s Asian session, supported by a weaker dollar and easing geopolitical tensions. The pair gained after President Trump reiterated plans to replace Powell, boosting bets on rate cuts.

However, the BoE’s dovish stance may cap further upside. Governor Andrew Bailey flagged softness in the UK labor market, and three MPC members voted to cut rates in June despite holding steady at 4.25%. Meanwhile, weak Q1 US GDP data and anticipation around May PCE figures keep the market cautious.

Resistance is seen at 1.3760, while support holds at 1.3660.

Silver Holds Firm Above $36.5 on Rate Cut Bets

Silver remained steady above $36.50, extending gains for a third session. The dollar's weakness, combined with growing rate cut expectations, continues to support the metal. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish tone and speculation over Trump’s upcoming Fed nomination are keeping markets alert.

On the macro front, the White House downplayed the urgency of looming tariff deadlines, easing trade fears. Silver also enjoys support from robust industrial demand and tight supply, outperforming gold with an 11% rise in June.

Resistance is seen at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.