Global markets remained cautious on Wednesday as investors balanced strong U.S. economic data against upcoming central bank commentary and inflation releases.
The euro stayed near a one-year low ahead of the ECB's Sintra Forum, while gold and silver hovered near multi-month lows as expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes remained firm. The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level in decades, fueling speculation over possible intervention by Japanese authorities, while sterling stabilized following political developments in the UK. Markets now await Friday's U.S. jobs report and further guidance from global central bank officials.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| 12:15 | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) | 118K | 122K |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 55.7 | 55.1 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 53.8 | 54.0 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) | 77.7 | 82.1 |
| 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -4.800M | -6.088M |
The euro concluded June hovering near $1.14, staying close to its one-year low as investor focus shifted to the ECB's Sintra Forum and upcoming Eurozone inflation metrics. A key highlight is Wednesday's policy panel featuring ECB President Christine Lagarde, which markets are monitoring for future monetary signals. June consumer price data revealed cooling inflationary pressures across Germany, France, and Italy, whereas Spain diverged from the broader trend, with local inflation staying near a two-year peak.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1430 while the support starts from 1.1360.
| R1: 1.1430 | S1: 1.1360 |
| R2: 1.1470 | S2: 1.1290 |
| R3: 1.1540 | S3: 1.1200 |
Gold stabilized around $4,000 per ounce on Wednesday, though it remained pinned near an eight-month low. Strong U.S. economic data continues to underscore economic resilience, strengthening the narrative for upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes later this year. The latest JOLTS report highlighted that job openings jumped to a two-year high, while market analysts broadly anticipate another strong June non-farm payrolls print.
First resistance is seen at $4020, with initial support near $3950.
| R1: 4020 | S1: 3950 |
| R2: 4088 | S2: 3840 |
| R3: 4120 | S3: 3800 |
The Japanese yen breached 162.5 against the dollar on Wednesday, sinking to its weakest valuation in four decades and amplifying speculation regarding potential Tokyo currency intervention. Market participants are eyeing Friday's U.S. holiday as a strategic window for official yen-buying operations, since thinner market liquidity could maximize the impact of the move. The currency faced renewed downward momentum following strong U.S. economic data, which underscored economic resilience and reinforced expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Initial resistance stands at 163.00, while the first support is at 161.70.
| R1: 163.00 | S1: 161.70 |
| R2: 163.80 | S2: 160.50 |
| R3: 164.50 | S3: 159.00 |
The British pound rebounded from seven-month lows to hold above $1.32. This recovery followed a commitment from Andy Burnham, the sole candidate to succeed Keir Starmer, to transfer significant fiscal authority to regional governments while maintaining strict economic discipline.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3260, with support around 1.3150.
| R1: 1.3260 | S1: 1.3150 |
| R2: 1.3350 | S2: 1.3110 |
| R3: 1.3510 | S3: 1.3040 |
Silver dipped below $58 per ounce on Wednesday, hovering near a seven-month low. Strong U.S. economic data continues to underscore economic resilience, upholding market forecasts for subsequent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes later this year. Specifically, the latest JOLTS report showed job openings surged to a two-year peak, and market participants are preparing for another non-farm payrolls release for June.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.90, while support is located around $56.50.
| R1: 58.90 | S1: 56.50 |
| R2: 60.40 | S2: 54.10 |
| R3: 62.00 | S3: 50.00 |
Global markets turned their attention to central bank policy as the ECB's Sintra Forum and key inflation data took center stage.
Fed Hike Bets Rise Ahead of Jobs Data (29 June – 3 July)Global markets entered the week with investors focused on the upcoming US labor market report, which is expected to provide the next major signal for Federal Reserve policy. The US dollar remained near its highest level in more than a year after last week’s strong rally, supported by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and growing expectations of further monetary tightening. At the same time, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz briefly reignited inflation concerns before both sides agreed to suspend military action ahead of another round of peace talks in Doha.
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