Hot US Inflation Lifts Dollar (11.11.2026)

Surprising US inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary reinforced expectations for further monetary tightening, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to 91%. 

Gold held below $4,050 following a 3% decline, while silver stabilized near $52 as higher interest rate expectations weighed on precious metals. Meanwhile, the euro struggled to recover above 1.1150, and sterling rebounded modestly toward 1.3350 despite persistent dollar strength. The Japanese yen weakened toward 159 per dollar, approaching a two-month low even as Bank of Japan officials signaled further tightening. Hopes for US-Iran diplomatic progress offered some relief to currencies by reducing safe-haven dollar demand.

EUR/USD Stabilizes Above 1.1150

EUR/USD fell sharply following hotter-than-expected US inflation data, attempting to stabilize above 1.1150 during Wednesday's Asian session. October CPI rose 0.4% monthly with core CPI at 0.3%, supporting the case for a December Fed rate increase. Fed Governor Waller noted a potential 50-basis-point jumbo hike could be considered given the 0.3% core print, while hawkish comments from Logan and Paulson further lifted the dollar. However, Secretary of State Rubio's comments ruling out large-scale military action in Iran may temper safe-haven dollar demand.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1210 while the support starts from 1.1130.

Gold Holds Below $4,050 Level

Gold held below $4,050 per ounce on Wednesday, consolidating after a 3% decline as persistent inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric fueled rate hike expectations. October headline inflation moderated to 0.4% monthly while core inflation held at 0.3%, both topping consensus estimates. Fed Governor Christopher Waller endorsed continued tightening, opening the door for a half-point increase if price pressures accelerate, alongside aggressive stance signals from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. The market odds for a December rate hike surged to 91%.

First resistance is seen at $4080, with initial support near $4020.

Yen Nears 159 Level

The Japanese yen weakened toward 158.9 per dollar on Wednesday, trading near a two-month low as the dollar rallied on hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated US inflation readings. Markets now price in a 91% probability of a December Fed rate increase, with further tightening anticipated into early next year. The yen remained constrained despite hawkish signals from Bank of Japan officials, including Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda, who indicated higher interest rates remain likely next month.

First resistance is seen at 159.30, with initial support near 158.30.

GBP/USD Recovers to 1.3350

GBP/USD hit a week-and-a-half low following strong US inflation figures before recovering slightly toward 1.3350 during Wednesday's Asian session. Growing expectations of a potential 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December continue to underpin dollar strength, limiting upside momentum. However, emerging hopes for US-Iran diplomatic progress have softened safe-haven demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's persistent hawkish posture provides underlying support for the pound as the pair holds above key support at 1.3314 to 1.3322.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3310.

Silver Holds Near $52 Level

Silver traded near $52 per ounce on Wednesday following a 3% drop in the prior session, pressured by hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated US inflation figures. October headline inflation moderated to 0.4% monthly yet exceeded the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation held steady at 0.3% for a third consecutive month. Persistent price pressures continue to solidify market expectations for a December rate hike, heightening headwind risks for non-yielding bullion.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.60, while support is located around $51.50.