Market Awaits Fed, Tariffs, and ECB Cuts as Volatility Rises (01.31.2025)

Markets remain volatile as traders assess central bank policies and trade tensions. The Fed held rates steady, while the ECB cut rates to 2.75% and signaled further easing. Trump reaffirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on China still under review. Gold surged past $2,800 on safe-haven demand, while silver hit a six-week high. 

The yen gained as the BOJ signaled more rate hikes, and the dollar strengthened on economic resilience and tariff fears. Investors now await key US PCE inflation data and upcoming central bank decisions.

Euro Weakens as ECB Signals Further Rate Reductions

The EUR/USD pair faces selling pressure near 1.0385 in Friday’s Asian session, weighed down by expectations of further ECB rate cuts. Investors await clarity on Trump’s potential tariff threats, which could impact market sentiment.

As expected, the ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75% on Thursday, signaling the possibility of further reductions amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. Eurostat data showed the Eurozone economy stagnated in Q4, missing the 0.1% growth forecast after 0.4% in Q3. Germany’s Retail Sales and Unemployment data, due Friday, could provide direction.

In the US, the Fed kept rates at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, with Powell ruling out immediate cuts without supporting inflation and employment data. Weaker US GDP growth of 2.3% in Q4, below forecasts, limited the dollar’s gains.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0450, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0550 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0355, followed by additional support levels at 1.0270 and 1.0225.  

Yen Set for Weekly Gain Amid BOJ Signals and Strong Data

The Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar on Friday, set to end the week and month higher as expectations grow for more BOJ rate hikes. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino signaled further hikes if economic growth and inflation stay on track.

Friday’s data showed Tokyo’s core inflation hit an 11-month high of 2.5% in January, retail sales exceeded forecasts, industrial production rebounded, and unemployment fell unexpectedly. Meanwhile, traders await clarity on Trump’s policies after he reaffirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on China still under review.

The key resistance level appears to be 155.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.70 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.80 is the first major support, followed by 151.90 and 149.20 if the price moves lower. 

Gold Surges on Tariff Concerns and Global Central Bank Easing

Gold neared $2,800 per ounce on Friday, hitting a record high as Trump’s renewed tariff threats fueled demand for safe-haven assets amid trade war fears.

The rally was also supported by dovish central bank policies. The ECB cut rates, the BoC ended quantitative tightening, and the Riksbank eased policy. The PBoC and RBI signaled looser monetary stances. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady, reinforcing expectations for two cuts later this year. Gold is on track for its biggest monthly gain since March 2024.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2800 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2820 and 2858 consequently. On the downside, 2730 will be the first support level. 2660 and 2630 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.  

GBP/USD Falls to 1.2420 as Dollar Strength and Tariff Fears Weigh

GBP/USD extended losses for a fourth session, trading near 1.2420 on Friday as a stronger US Dollar and renewed tariff threats from Trump pressured the pair.

Late Thursday, Trump reiterated plans for a 25% import tax on Canadian and Mexican goods, with the first round set for February 1. He also threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they introduced a new trade currency.

Traders now await key US data, including PCE inflation and PMI figures. Meanwhile, the British Pound remains under pressure as the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week, its third cut since August.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2460. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2500 and 1.2600. On the downside 1.2400 will be the first support level. 1.2350 and 1.2265 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Silver Surges to $31.7 on Fed Speculation and Supply Deficit

Silver jumped past $31.7 per ounce on Thursday, a six-week high, as Fed policy speculation boosted demand for non-yielding assets.

The Silver Institute projected a fifth straight annual supply deficit despite higher output from China, Canada, and Chile.

Investors also assessed industrial demand, particularly from Chinese solar panel manufacturers, a key driver of silver consumption.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 32.00 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 32.50 and 32.90 consequently. On the downside 30.90 will be the first support level. 29.80 and 29.30 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.