Markets Brace for Doha Talks (06.29.2026)

Global markets opened the week cautiously as investors balanced renewed U.S.–Iran tensions with hopes for diplomatic progress ahead of peace talks in Doha. 

The U.S. dollar remained relatively flat near 101.3 on Monday. It is firmly supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, keeping pressure on the euro and the yen despite solid economic data from Japan. Gold and silver retreated as higher oil prices revived inflation concerns, while sterling posted only modest gains within a broader downtrend. Market attention now turns to developments in Qatar and upcoming economic data for fresh direction.

Euro Slips Past Crucial Support

The euro dipped under $1.14, staying near its weakest valuation since June 2025 as a dominant dollar maintained steady pressure. This downward momentum is fueled by growing market expectations of additional Federal Reserve monetary tightening later this year, spurred by hawkish commentary from central bank officials. The European Central Bank implemented a widely expected 25 basis point rate increase. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde rejected calls for aggressive policy escalation, noting that Middle East geopolitical spillovers require no extreme response and medium-term inflation goals remain secure.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1420 while the support starts from 1.1360.

Gold Drops Ahead of Doha Peace Talks

Gold retreated to approximately $4,050 per ounce on Monday, snapping a two-day rally as renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz drove energy costs higher and reignited inflation anxieties. Geopolitical frictions had surged following Iranian strikes on commercial container ships, a Qatari oil tanker, and military infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain, prompting heavy U.S. military retaliation. However, both nations later declared a temporary ceasefire ahead of upcoming diplomatic peace negotiations slated to begin this week in Doha, Qatar.

First resistance is seen at $4088, with initial support near $4000.

Yen Keeps Flat Despite Retail Sales

The Japanese yen hovered around 161.7 against the dollar on Monday, staying pinned near its lowest levels since 1986. This stagnation persisted despite strong domestic data showing retail sales jumped 5.3% in May, marking the fastest acceleration since November 2023 due to a supportive government stimulus program. A string of strong economic indicators, alongside hawkish rhetoric from Bank of Japan policymakers, has reinforced market expectations that the central bank will deliver subsequent interest rate hikes later this year.

Initial resistance stands at 162.20, while the first support is at 161.00.

Sterling Inches Up in Broader Downtrend

The GBP/USD pair inched up to 1.3203 on June 29, 2026, recording a minor daily gain of 0.04%. Despite this fractional uptick, the British pound faces prolonged weakness, having dropped 1.87% against the dollar over the past month and 3.85% over the last year. Providing historical context to the current trading range, sterling reached its all-time high of 2.86 nearly seven decades ago in December 1957.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3240, with support around 1.3150.

Silver Retreats on Inflation Fears

Silver fell toward $58.5 per ounce on Monday, ending a two-session rebound as renewed military clashes between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz spiked crude prices and revived global inflation worries, dampening demand for the industrial metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.90, while support is located around $56.50.