Markets closed the week with a cautiously positive tone as expectations of continued US–Iran ceasefire discussions supported risk appetite.
EUR/USD held near 1.18, maintaining its recent strength as the dollar remained under pressure. In commodities, gold stayed firm around $4,800 and silver hovered near $79, both on track for another weekly gain as easing inflation concerns reduced the need for aggressive rate expectations. Meanwhile, the yen weakened past 159 due to policy uncertainty, while sterling edged lower as Bank of England rate hike expectations softened. Despite the improving sentiment, unresolved geopolitical risks continue to limit stronger moves across global markets.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| - | USD | U.S President Trump Speaks | - | - |

EUR/USD maintained its position near the 1.18 level as growing optimism over potential US–Iran peace progress supported the pair. This upward support was reinforced by market expectations for prolonged ceasefire discussions and upcoming diplomatic sessions, both of which continued to pressure the US dollar.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1830, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1760.
| R1: 1.1830 | S1: 1.1760 |
| R2: 1.1890 | S2: 1.1720 |
| R3: 1.1920 | S3: 1.1640 |

Gold held firm near $4,800 on Friday, heading for a fourth consecutive weekly rise. While doubts remain regarding reported peace terms, optimism over a potential US–Iran ceasefire has dampened inflation fears and interest rate expectations, providing consistent support for the precious metal.
First resistance is seen at $4840, with initial support near $4760.
| R1: 4840 | S1: 4760 |
| R2: 4960 | S2: 4650 |
| R3: 5020 | S3: 4580 |

The yen dropped beyond 159 per dollar as Governor Ueda avoided clear policy guidance. He highlighted the difficult balance between rising inflation threats and potential economic slowdowns, causing the currency to retreat.
Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.
| R1: 160.20 | S1: 158.10 |
| R2: 160.80 | S2: 157.60 |
| R3: 161.30 | S3: 156.80 |

The British pound eased to $1.356 as markets lowered expectations for a Bank of England rate increase. However, growing optimism regarding a possible resolution to the Middle East conflict helped limit further losses.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3500.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3500 |
| R2: 1.3650 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3700 | S3: 1.3280 |

Silver remained stable around $79 on Friday, positioned for its fourth weekly advance. Although deal specifics remain unconfirmed, growing confidence in a potential US–Iran ceasefire has cooled inflation worries and reduced expectations for further central bank rate hikes.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $81.50 while support is located around $77.40.
| R1: 81.50 | S1: 77.40 |
| R2: 84.60 | S2: 73.00 |
| R3: 89.10 | S3: 71.50 |
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
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