Markets Stay Cautious as Yields Rebound (06.01.2026)

Markets started the week on a mixed note as US-Iran talks remained uncertain and bond yields moved higher. 

The Dollar Index climbed back above 99 after two days of losses, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations that the Fed may still raise rates before year-end.

US stock futures edged higher, with major indexes staying close to record highs after May’s strong rally. AI optimism and solid earnings continued to support technology shares, while investors waited for the upcoming US jobs report.

In bond markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 4.47%, while Japan’s 10-year yield climbed near 2.69%. Higher oil prices, ceasefire uncertainty, and possible policy moves from the Fed and Bank of Japan kept yields in focus.

ECB Expectations Keep Euro Steady

The euro stayed near $1.165 at the end of May, heading for a modest monthly decline against the dollar. Traders focused on mixed Eurozone inflation data, with price growth still above the ECB’s 2% target.

Recent ECB minutes showed stronger support for tighter policy, keeping the chance of a June rate hike alive. Markets also followed US-Iran talks and rising geopolitical tension in Europe.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1670, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1600.

Gold Holds as Deal Progress Stalls

Gold stayed above $4,500 per ounce after a volatile week, as uncertainty continued around US-Iran ceasefire talks. Both sides exchanged revised proposals, but progress on extending the truce and reopening the Strait of Hormuz remained unclear.

Higher energy prices kept inflation and Fed policy concerns in focus, while investors now await US jobs data for fresh direction.

First resistance is seen at $4570, with initial support near $4480.

Yen Stays Under Pressure Near 160

The yen traded near 159.5 per dollar on Monday, staying close to the 160 level that previously triggered intervention. Officials confirmed ¥11.7 trillion in FX market support in April.

Markets remain divided on a possible Bank of Japan rate hike, while flat capital spending points to weaker corporate momentum. Investors now await comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Initial resistance stands at 159.70, while the first support is located at 159.00.

UK Uncertainty Weighs on Pound

The pound traded near $1.342 at the end of May, heading for a monthly decline of more than 1% against the dollar. Pressure came from UK political uncertainty after Labour’s local election defeat, along with wider concerns around US-Iran talks and energy risks.

Softer UK data and a weaker growth outlook have reduced expectations for further Bank of England rate hikes.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3510, with support around 1.3410.

Silver Holds as Fed Risks Stay in Focus

Silver held above $75 per ounce on Monday after a volatile week, as uncertainty continued around US-Iran ceasefire talks. Both sides exchanged revised proposals, but progress on the truce and Strait of Hormuz remained unclear.

Higher energy prices kept inflation and Fed policy concerns in focus, while markets now await US jobs data for fresh signals.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $75.70, while support is located around $71.