Markets Turn Cautious as Iran Talks Stall (04.21.2026)

Global markets adopted a cautious tone as renewed uncertainty around US–Iran negotiations supported the US dollar and limited upside across risk assets. 

EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1785, while gold held steady above $4,800 and silver stabilized near $80 as traders awaited the next round of talks in Pakistan. The Japanese yen remained under pressure amid Bank of Japan policy uncertainty, and sterling edged closer to key support despite maintaining a broader bullish structure. With the ceasefire deadline approaching and the Strait of Hormuz still restricted, geopolitical developments remain the dominant driver across markets.

EUR/USD Slips on Renewed Iran Tensions

EUR/USD drifted toward 1.1785 as stalling US–Iran ceasefire negotiations drove safe-haven demand for the dollar. Iran’s refusal to negotiate under pressure has clouded hopes for a swift diplomatic fix, driving investors back to the dollar. While the euro remains capped by this uncertainty, the market expects the European Central Bank to hold rates steady in April, with focus now pivoting toward potential policy tightening in the coming months.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1730.

Gold Holds Near $4,800

Gold prices stabilized above $4,800 per ounce on Tuesday as focus shifted toward the second round of US–Iran talks in Pakistan. Vice President JD Vance will again lead the American delegation, with Iran signaling its participation despite previous hesitation. The stakes remain high ahead of the impending ceasefire expiration; President Trump has warned that the truce will not be extended without a formal agreement and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until a definitive deal is reached.

First resistance is seen at $4840, with initial support near $4740.

Yen Weakens Amid BOJ Uncertainty

The Japanese yen hovered near 159 per dollar on Tuesday as markets weighed the Bank of Japan’s cautious policy outlook. Analysts anticipate the BOJ will maintain current interest rates this month to evaluate the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, though a shift toward normalization could be signaled for June. The central bank is expected to adjust its economic forecasts, likely hiking inflation projections while cutting growth estimates to reflect the persistent impact of high energy prices and the geopolitical risks stemming from the Iran conflict.

Initial resistance stands at 159.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Sterling Approaches Key Support

GBP/USD is retreating toward 1.3500, nearing critical support at its nine-day EMA and the base of its current ascending channel. This pullback follows an unsuccessful attempt to clear the two-month high of 1.3599, which stands as a significant hurdle. Although the pair is easing, momentum stays constructive with the 14-day RSI at 59, suggesting further upside remains possible. While the bullish trend is preserved above 1.3500, a decisive break below this floor could trigger a more substantial downward correction.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3550, with resistance around 1.3440.

Silver Stabilizes Near $80

Silver prices steadied around $80 per ounce on Tuesday following recent volatility, as market attention shifted toward the critical second round of US–Iran negotiations in Pakistan. Vice President JD Vance is set to lead the American delegation, with Iran indicating its participation despite earlier hesitation. The stakes are substantial, as President Trump has signaled that the current ceasefire will not be extended without a formal deal, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until a resolution is reached.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $80.40 while support is located around $78.00.