Heightened political tension and threats to central bank autonomy are driving global markets. The dollar weakened following legal pressure on Fed Chair Powell, allowing the euro to rebound and sterling to hold near multi-month highs.
The yen hit one-year lows due to Japanese political instability. While gold and silver are consolidating after record peaks, fragile sentiment remains. Ongoing unrest in Iran and broader geopolitical fears continue to sustain strong safe-haven demand.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 13:30 | USD | CPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 13:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (Dec) | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 13:30 | USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 15:00 | USD | New Home Sales (Oct) | 715K | 800K |
The euro rose toward $1.17, recovering from a one-month low as the dollar retreated. Sentiment shifted after Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed regarding headquarters costs. Powell labeled the probe a pretext for Donald Trump to pressure the central bank into cutting interest rates, sparking concerns over the Fed’s future independence.
Technically, 1.1620 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1710.
| R1: 1.1710 | S1: 1.1620 |
| R2: 1.1840 | S2: 1.1590 |
| R3: 1.1890 | S3: 1.1520 |
The Japanese yen dropped past 158 per dollar on Tuesday, reaching its weakest level in a year. This decline follows growing speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may dissolve parliament for a snap election as early as next month. Investors anticipate that a victory would allow Takaichi to further her agenda of aggressive, expansionary fiscal policies.
Technically, resistance stands near 158.90, while support is firm at 157.50.
| R1: 158.90 | S1: 157.50 |
| R2: 159.40 | S2: 156.80 |
| R3: 160.00 | S3: 154.70 |
Gold prices eased below $4,580 on Tuesday. This correction followed Monday’s record high of $4,600 as investors balanced a technical pullback with intensifying global risks. Sentiment remains volatile due to a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which he claims is a political attempt to force interest rate cuts. Additionally, President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, alongside renewed military threats. These factors continue to drive safe-haven demand despite the slight price dip.
Gold sees support near $4540, while resistance is around $4620.
| R1: 4620 | S1: 4540 |
| R2: 4650 | S2: 4490 |
| R3: 4710 | S3: 4395 |
The British pound surged toward $1.35, approaching a recent three-month peak. This move comes as investors move away from the dollar following news that the Justice Department subpoenaed Fed Chair Jerome Powell over building costs. Powell condemned the probe as a political tactic by President Trump to force interest rate cuts, sparking widespread fears over the central bank's independence.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3420, with resistance around 1.3520.
| R1: 1.3520 | S1: 1.3420 |
| R2: 1.3550 | S2: 1.3340 |
| R3: 1.3620 | S3: 1.3290 |
Silver prices held steady near $85 on Tuesday, consolidating after Monday’s record surge. Market sentiment remains cautious as investors digest a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ongoing, deadly unrest in Iran. These risks, coupled with speculation about potential U.S. intervention, continue to support silver's appeal as a vital safe-haven asset in a volatile landscape.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $86.50 while support is located around $83.20.
| R1: 86.50 | S1: 83.20 |
| R2: 87.70 | S2: 79.90 |
| R3: 89.90 | S3: 77.00 |
Global markets traded cautiously as shifting Federal Reserve expectations and easing geopolitical risks continued to shape sentiment. President Trump warned he'll bomb Oman if it stands in Washington's way, as reports suggest Iran and Oman are moving toward a deal on Strait of Hormuz control.
Global markets started the week with the dollar under pressure as softer U.S. retail sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
Detail
Cooling US Data Weakens Dollar Amid Energy Risks (17 – 21 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under renewed pressure as softer inflation, retail sales, and employment data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dollar Index traded around 99.61, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Gold and silver extended their gains as the shift in Fed expectations supported precious metals, while the euro and pound benefited from the dollar’s declining yield advantage.
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