In January 2025, advance estimates for U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, holidays, and trading-day differences (but not for inflation), amounted to $723.9 billion.
This figure reflects a 0.9% decline (±0.5%) from December 2024 but marks a 4.2% increase (±0.5%) compared to January 2024.
For the three-month period spanning November 2024 to January 2025, sales increased by 4.2% (±0.5%) compared to the same period the previous year. Additionally, the month-over-month sales growth for December 2024 was revised upward from an initial estimate of 0.4% (±0.5%) to 0.7% (±0.3%), indicating stronger-than-expected performance in the final month of 2024.
Retail trade sales experienced a 1.2% decline (±0.5%) from December 2024, but remained 4.0% higher (±0.5%) than in January 2024, demonstrating continued year-over-year growth.
Overall, while retail sales showed a slight pullback from the previous month, the annual growth trends suggest sustained consumer activity across key sectors.

Source: US Census Bureau
Global markets traded cautiously as shifting Federal Reserve expectations and easing geopolitical risks continued to shape sentiment. President Trump warned he'll bomb Oman if it stands in Washington's way, as reports suggest Iran and Oman are moving toward a deal on Strait of Hormuz control.
Global markets started the week with the dollar under pressure as softer U.S. retail sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
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Cooling US Data Weakens Dollar Amid Energy Risks (17 – 21 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under renewed pressure as softer inflation, retail sales, and employment data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dollar Index traded around 99.61, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Gold and silver extended their gains as the shift in Fed expectations supported precious metals, while the euro and pound benefited from the dollar’s declining yield advantage.
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