Escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher following a deadly drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah facility, renewing inflation concerns and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.
Gold slipped below $4,100, while silver retreated toward $57 as higher interest rate expectations weighed on precious metals. Meanwhile, the euro edged toward 1.1235 but remained constrained by French political unrest and fiscal uncertainty. Sterling consolidated near 1.3400, holding close to multi-week highs, while the yen strengthened slightly around 158 per dollar as Bank of Japan officials maintained a hawkish outlook ahead of next week's central bank decisions.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | - | 200K | 199K |
The euro recorded modest gains above 1.1200, with EUR/USD rising toward 1.1235 during early Asian trading on Thursday. However, broader upside potential remains constrained as widespread anti-government protests in France and ongoing fiscal vulnerabilities continue to generate selling pressure on the shared currency. Interest rate futures reflect minimal probability of European Central Bank policy tightening at next week's meeting. Market participants are now awaiting scheduled remarks from ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta later today for updated policy guidance.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1180.
| R1: 1.1260 | S1: 1.1180 |
| R2: 1.1300 | S2: 1.1120 |
| R3: 1.1350 | S3: 1.1050 |
Gold slipped below $4,100 per ounce on Thursday, reversing previous gains as escalating Middle East conflict pushed crude prices higher and re-ignited inflation concerns. Oil markets rallied following a fatal drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, prompting partial US embassy evacuations. While the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are broadly expected to hold rates unchanged next week, persistent energy-driven inflation keeps market expectations aligned with a potential Fed rate increase in December. Higher interest rate expectations continue to weigh on non-yielding precious metals despite their traditional inflation-hedge status.
First resistance is seen at $4140, with initial support near $4070.
| R1: 4140 | S1: 4070 |
| R2: 4200 | S2: 4000 |
| R3: 4300 | S3: 3950 |
The Japanese yen strengthened slightly past 158 per dollar on Thursday, remaining within a tight range ahead of next week's Bank of Japan decision. Markets broadly anticipate rates staying steady until December, despite persistent inflation. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish stance, highlighting that underlying inflation approaches the 2% target and warning against delayed policy action. Nevertheless, low domestic rates and persistent interest rate differentials with major economies continue to encourage carry trades, suppressing sustained currency gains.
First resistance is seen at 158.40, with initial support near 157.80.
| R1: 158.40 | S1: 157.00 |
| R2: 159.00 | S2: 155.40 |
| R3: 160.20 | S3: 153.20 |
GBP/USD consolidated with a positive bias near 1.3400 on Thursday, resting just below multi-week highs. Technically, the pair trades above its 100-day moving average at 1.3389, sandwiched between 38.2% Fibonacci support at 1.3341 and 50% resistance at 1.3404. This tight range indicates a neutral short-term setup as markets await a directional breakout. An upside push past 1.3404 brings resistance targets at 1.3467, 1.3557, and 1.3672 into view, while a downside break below support highlights 1.3263 and 1.3137 as primary downside risk levels.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3460, with support around 1.3320.
| R1: 1.3460 | S1: 1.3320 |
| R2: 1.3530 | S2: 1.3270 |
| R3: 1.3650 | S3: 1.3220 |
Silver traded below $57 per ounce on Thursday, surrendering recent gains as escalating Middle East friction pushed crude prices higher and renewed inflation fears. Oil markets surged following a fatal drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah facility, leading to partial US embassy evacuations. Although the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are broadly projected to maintain interest rates unchanged next week, persistent energy-driven price pressures keep investors aligned with a potential Fed rate increase in December, keeping downward pressure on precious metal prices.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $57.50, while support is located around $56.00.
| R1: 57.50 | S1: 56.00 |
| R2: 59.00 | S2: 55.00 |
| R3: 60.50 | S3: 53.50 |
Rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns as uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reinforced expectations for further monetary tightening.
فشار افزایش قیمت نفت و نرخ بهره بر طلا و نقره (۱۴۰۵/۰۷/۲۸)افزایش قیمت نفت و بازده اوراق خزانه‌داری آمریکا، قیمت طلا و نقره را کاهش داد. ادامه تنش‌های ژئوپلیتیک نیز نگرانی‌ها درباره تورم را بیشتر کرده و احتمال ادامه سیاست‌های انقباضی فدرال رزرو را افزایش داده است.
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