The Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its April meeting, as expected, yet officials made it clear that the decision should not be viewed as a shift toward easing.
Policymakers continue to focus on inflation risks, especially as energy prices and external shocks impact the economic outlook.
The Bank’s latest communication shows a change in approach. Instead of relying on a single forecast, officials are now working with multiple economic scenarios to assess how inflation, growth, and labor market conditions could develop. This shift reflects the high level of uncertainty surrounding the economy, where movements in energy prices and consumer costs can quickly reshape expectations.
Several policymakers warned that inflation pressures could spread further if higher energy costs begin feeding into wages, services, and broader price expectations. Although the labor market is showing signs of softening and financial conditions have tightened, the Bank is not ready to declare victory over inflation. Some members indicated that additional rate increases may still be necessary if price pressures remain persistent.
Under the Bank’s more severe scenario, inflation could peak near 6.2% in the first quarter of 2027, while unemployment could rise toward 5.7%. Holding rates high for too long could slow growth, yet easing too early risks allowing inflation to become entrenched again. In the near term, the decision supports a cautious stance on UK assets, with volatility likely to remain tied to inflation trends and energy developments.
Global markets remained focused on shifting Middle East developments and monetary policy expectations, with reports of progress toward a Strait of Hormuz shipping agreement influencing sentiment.
Detail
Data Ketenagakerjaan yang Lemah Menghantam Dolar karena Risiko Hormuz Tetap Ada (10 – 14 Agustus)Pasar global memasuki pekan ini ketika investor menilai kembali prospek Federal Reserve setelah laporan ketenagakerjaan AS yang secara mengejutkan lemah menandakan memburuknya kondisi pasar tenaga kerja lebih lanjut. Indeks Dolar jatuh menuju level terendah dua bulan, sementara emas dan perak mempertahankan kenaikan mingguan yang kuat karena ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed pada bulan September turun tajam. Pada saat yang sama, ketidakpastian seputar Selat Hormuz terus memengaruhi harga minyak dan ekspektasi inflasi global, dengan Iran dan Oman melaporkan kemajuan menuju kesepakatan transit tetapi belum ada resolusi yang lebih luas yang tercapai.
Detail Data Ketenagakerjaan yang Lemah Mendukung Logam dan Mata Uang (08.10.2026)Pasar global membuka pekan ini dengan dolar berada di bawah tekanan setelah data ketenagakerjaan AS yang secara tak terduga lemah mengurangi ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve pada bulan September.
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