Global markets remained cautious ahead of the latest U.S. inflation report as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets on edge.
Higher oil prices reinforced inflation concerns and supported the U.S. dollar, weighing on major currencies and precious metals. Investors are also looking to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony for fresh signals on the outlook for interest rates.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI (MoM) (Jun) | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| 12:30 | USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 3.8% | 4.2% |
The EUR/USD pair hovered near 1.1385, pressured by Strait of Hormuz disruptions following fresh U.S. strikes on Iran and safe-haven dollar demand from climbing oil prices. Markets await the upcoming U.S. CPI report, with core inflation projected at 2.9%, while evaluating hawkish ECB rhetoric following Yannis Stournaras's cautious warnings. Technical indicators remain bearish, keeping the 1.1324 support level vulnerable while capping upside near 1.1450.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1420 while the support starts from 1.1360.
| R1: 1.1420 | S1: 1.1360 |
| R2: 1.1465 | S2: 1.1330 |
| R3: 1.1500 | S3: 1.1300 |
Gold consolidated near $4,000 on Tuesday, stabilizing after a 3% drop. Pressures mounted after President Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian vessels and proposed a 20% transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz, sparking inflation fears. Ongoing geopolitical frictions and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming testimony keep markets tense, with a September rate hike probability hovering at 51%.
First resistance is seen at $4080, with initial support near $3950.
| R1: 4080 | S1: 3950 |
| R2: 4140 | S2: 3900 |
| R3: 4200 | S3: 3840 |
The USD/JPY pair consolidated near 162.43, sitting just below its recent multi-decade peaks. Geopolitical oil supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz heavily pressure the import-dependent yen while lifting the dollar via safe-haven demand and tight Federal Reserve policy expectations. Meanwhile, Japan's interest rate hike to 1.00% has done little to counter deeply negative real yields.
Initial resistance stands at 162.80, while the first support is at 161.50.
| R1: 162.80 | S1: 161.50 |
| R2: 163.50 | S2: 160.70 |
| R3: 164.00 | S3: 160.00 |
The pound slipped under $1.34 as Middle East hostilities pushed crude prices higher, elevating inflation concerns and strengthening Bank of England rate-hike expectations. Domestic political shifts also loom, with Andy Burnham positioned to become Labour leader on Friday and prime minister by Monday. Despite the geopolitical and political transitions, sterling's relative resilience suggests the market has factored in the disruption.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3320.
| R1: 1.3400 | S1: 1.3320 |
| R2: 1.3440 | S2: 1.3230 |
| R3: 1.3500 | S3: 1.3180 |
Silver stayed depressed below $58 on Tuesday following a steep 4% drop. Pressures intensified after Donald Trump reinstated a shipping blockade on Iranian ships and proposed transit fees, driving oil higher and sparking fresh inflation concerns. This escalating U.S.–Iran conflict, paired with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s impending testimony, keeps markets anxious as a September rate hike gains traction.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.50, while support is located around $56.00.
| R1: 58.50 | S1: 56.00 |
| R2: 60.00 | S2: 54.00 |
| R3: 61.70 | S3: 52.50 |
Geopolitics Fuel Inflation Fears (13 – 17 July)Global markets remained driven by geopolitical developments this week as renewed US-Iran strikes and uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire kept investors focused on inflation risks and the outlook for monetary policy. Although oil prices eased toward the end of the week as diplomatic talks continued, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to support energy markets. Investors also assessed the latest Federal Reserve commentary and June FOMC minutes, which highlighted persistent concerns over inflation despite keeping interest rates unchanged.
Detail Markets Await Inflation Amid Conflicts (07.13.2026)Global markets started the week cautiously as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions lifted oil prices and reinforced inflation concerns.
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