Global markets started the week with a cautious risk-on tone as renewed U.S.–Iran diplomatic efforts eased geopolitical concerns and weighed on oil prices.
The softer inflation outlook supported gold, silver, and major currencies against the dollar, while investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Attention now turns to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could shape expectations for a potential September rate move.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 53.8 | 53.8 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 54.0 | 53.3 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) | 70.0 | 73.0 |
EUR/USD maintains a mild upward momentum near 1.1528, continuing its bounce after breaking key resistance. Euro gains are driven by US Dollar weakness following the Fed's rate decision, strong Eurozone Q2 GDP growth at 0.4%, and cooling geopolitical risks. Remaining above its 50-day SMA, the pair awaits Friday's key NFP data.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1500.
| R1: 1.1560 | S1: 1.1500 |
| R2: 1.1590 | S2: 1.1460 |
| R3: 1.1680 | S3: 1.1400 |
Gold rebounded past $4,050 after recovering early losses as President Trump announced resuming peace talks with Iran, pushing oil prices lower and cooling inflation concerns. Allies like Saudi Arabia encouraged diplomatic efforts over strikes, alongside calls to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, market attention shifts to a key US labor market week featuring Friday's jobs report, following the Federal Reserve's rate hold, as traders price in a 68% probability of a September rate increase.
First resistance is seen at $4085, with initial support near $4020.
| R1: 4085 | S1: 4020 |
| R2: 4120 | S2: 3970 |
| R3: 4160 | S3: 3900 |
The Japanese yen rallied toward 155 against the dollar, expanding its three-day gain to 5% following official confirmation of joint currency intervention by Japan's Finance Ministry and the US Treasury. Japanese officials emphasized readiness for additional coordinated steps to counter recent 40-year lows. US officials framing the effort as a move to preserve global financial stability, countering previous downside pressure caused by high energy import costs, fiscal worries, and widening interest rate gaps.
Initial resistance stands at 157.30, while the first support is at 155,30.
| R1: 157.30 | S1: 155.30 |
| R2: 158.60 | S2: 153.80 |
| R3: 160.00 | S3: 151.50 |
GBP/USD trends moderately higher near 1.3470, staying firm above key short-term moving averages. The Bank of England's rate hold at 3.75% provides underlying support against a broader dollar retreat, while improving geopolitical sentiment reduces safe-haven demand. However, historical downside seasonal trends typically seen throughout August continue to limit stronger bullish momentum.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3360.
| R1: 1.3500 | S1: 1.3360 |
| R2: 1.3540 | S2: 1.3300 |
| R3: 1.3600 | S3: 1.3240 |
Silver climbed above $58, regaining ground after announcements of renewed US-Iran peace talks pushed oil lower and tempered inflation fears. Regional allies urged diplomacy over military strikes, alongside calls to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors now turn to a busy US labor market week featuring Friday's jobs report, following the Fed's steady rate policy despite three dissents, with markets favoring a September rate hike.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.90, while support is located around $57.15.
| R1: 58.90 | S1: 57.15 |
| R2: 60.00 | S2: 55.70 |
| R3: 61.50 | S3: 54.00 |
Fed and Iran Talks Drive Markets (3–7 August)Global markets entered August with investors reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook while renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran triggered sharp moves in oil and precious metals. The dollar recovered to around 100.3 but remained under pressure after posting its worst weekly decline in three months. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell more than 4% after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran would resume, easing immediate concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and energy-driven inflation.
Detail
Eurozone Inflation Climbs to 2.9%Eurozone inflation edged higher in July, with rising energy prices keeping overall price pressures well above the European Central Bank's target. Annual inflation increased to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June, in line with market expectations but still significantly above the ECB's 2% goal.
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