Fed Minutes are in Focus as Dollar Stabilizes (07.07.2026)

Global markets traded cautiously as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for further policy guidance. 

The dollar stabilized after last week's employment-driven decline, weighing modestly on gold, silver, and the pound, while the euro held steady despite mixed Eurozone economic data. The Japanese yen remained under pressure as traders continued to question the likelihood of meaningful intervention by Japanese authorities.

Euro Balances Mixed Signals

The euro hovered near $1.14 as investors digested conflicting economic data from the Eurozone. While German factory orders outperformed expectations with a 1.9% expansion, retail sales growth disappointed at 0.2%, and producer inflation climbed to 5.9%. Last week's 0.5% advance against the dollar, sparked by soft U.S. labor figures, faced resistance from dovish ECB rhetoric. Markets are pricing in just a single 25-basis-point rate hike this year, even as Berlin finalized a €555.4 billion budget for 2027.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1460 while the support starts from 1.1400.

Gold Softens Below $4,130

Gold edged lower below $4,130 an ounce on Tuesday, though it retained the bulk of last week's gains as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve's June minutes. Disappointing June labor data lowered September rate hike expectations to roughly 50%. Falling oil prices, pulled down by stabilizing Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and expanded OPEC+ production targets, helped anchor market sentiment and limit significant downside for the precious metal.

First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4080.

Yen Lags Near 162

The yen hovered near 162 per dollar on Tuesday, remaining pinned close to its lowest level in forty years as traders continued selling the currency amid absent Bank of Japan intervention. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama restated Japan's readiness to intervene alongside Washington, though market participants question the long-term effectiveness of such actions. Additional pressure stems from fiscal expansion anxieties and a sluggish policy normalization pace, even as mixed domestic data revealed rising wages but falling household spending.

Initial resistance stands at 162.70, while the first support is at 161.00.

Pound Eases as Dollar Rebounds

The pound retreated to $1.339, ending a seven-day winning streak as the dollar staged a recovery from its recent employment-driven selloff. While sterling benefited from a 1.1% weekly advance as Federal Reserve rate expectations cooled, sliding crude prices have simultaneously lowered tightening pressure on the Bank of England, with Andrew Bailey affirming a steady path toward inflation targets.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3430, with support around 1.3330.

Silver Dips Below $61.50

Silver fell below $61.50 an ounce on Tuesday, holding most of its prior weekly gains as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's June minutes. Disappointing labor data lowered September rate hike expectations to near 50%. Falling crude prices, driven by normalizing Strait of Hormuz logistics and heightened OPEC+ production targets provided underlying structural support for the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $63.20, while support is located around $60.10.