Focus Turns on CBs as Fed Holds Rates (07.30.2026)

Global markets digested the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged while assessing signals that further tightening remains possible if inflation persists. 

The dollar index held below 101, extending a sharp decline after the Fed left rates unchanged despite mounting inflation risks tied to Middle East tensions. Three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike, while Chair Warsh emphasized the hold shouldn't be read as policy inertia. The softer dollar supported the euro and yen, while gold and silver held recent gains as investors weighed ongoing Middle East tensions against the outlook for monetary policy. Attention now turns to upcoming decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan, along with key Eurozone inflation data.

Euro Advances Toward $1.15

The euro strengthened toward $1.15, touching a two-week high as the dollar softened following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates unchanged. European money markets are now pricing in nearly two ECB rate increases by March 2027, supported by hawkish comments from policymakers Kazimir and Lane. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming Eurozone inflation data for further direction.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1490 while the support starts from 1.1400.

Gold Steadies Around $4,050

Gold stabilized near $4,050, holding earlier gains after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged despite rising inflation risks linked to Middle East tensions. Three FOMC members dissented, advocating for a rate increase, as Chair Warsh indicated future tightening remains possible if inflation stays high. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan face upcoming policy decisions, with geopolitical uncertainties remaining elevated.

First resistance is seen at $4100, with initial support near $4020.

Yen Rebounds Near 163.5

The Japanese yen advanced toward 163.5 per dollar as the dollar eased following the Federal Reserve's rate hold. Despite three hawkish FOMC dissents, Chair Warsh emphasized the decision does not imply policy inertia. Meanwhile, markets anticipate the Bank of Japan will hold steady Friday while keeping rate hikes open to support the currency amid ongoing U.S. strikes against Iranian targets.

Initial resistance stands at 164.00, while the first support is at 163.20.

Sterling Trades Soft Near 1.3348

GBP/USD drifted lower toward 1.3348 as investors await the Bank of England's rate announcement, where policy is projected to hold at 3.75% following a dip in UK inflation to 2.6%. Although a dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve limited dollar strength, broader Middle East risk dynamics and domestic political developments under Prime Minister Burnham continue influencing sterling's trajectory.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3370, with support around 1.3260.

Silver Steadies Near $57.5

Silver prices stabilized around $57.5, maintaining recent gains after the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates steady despite rising energy-driven inflation risks. Three FOMC members voted for a rate increase, with Chair Warsh warning that future hikes remain possible if inflation persists. Meanwhile, central bank decisions from the BOE and BOJ loom, as geopolitical friction and stalled Hormuz negotiations keep commodity markets on edge.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.40, while support is located around $56.50.