Global markets started the week cautiously as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions lifted oil prices and reinforced inflation concerns.
Investors are focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony for clues on the interest rate outlook. Safe-haven demand supported the U.S. dollar, keeping pressure on the euro, pound, gold, and silver, while the Japanese yen stabilized on intervention speculation.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 15:30 | USD | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.735% | |
| 16:30 | USD | Fed Waller Speaks |
The euro remains pressured near the 1.1400 threshold as regional conflict elevates safe-haven dollar demand. Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and approaching inflation data signal upcoming volatility, intensified by the divergence between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a dovish ECB. Sellers maintain technical control while price action stays below the April descending trendline.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1440 while the support starts from 1.1360.
| R1: 1.1440 | S1: 1.1360 |
| R2: 1.1465 | S2: 1.1330 |
| R3: 1.1500 | S3: 1.1300 |
Gold dropped below $4,100 an ounce on Monday as renewed U.S.–Iran missile strikes drove oil prices higher, intensifying market bets on inflation-taming interest rate hikes. The U.S. launched a fourth round of strikes Sunday following an attack on a Cyprus-flagged vessel. Investors now await pivotal U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming congressional testimony.
First resistance is seen at $4120, with initial support near $4020.
| R1: 4120 | S1: 4020 |
| R2: 4160 | S2: 3950 |
| R3: 4200 | S3: 3900 |
The USD/JPY pair traded within a narrow short-term range ahead of critical U.S. inflation data, pulling back from recent multi-decade highs while sustaining its broader upward trajectory. The yen found support after Japan's Finance Minister urged pension funds to increase domestic asset allocations. However, elevated oil prices driven by U.S.–Iran frictions continue to burden the import-reliant Japanese economy.
Initial resistance stands at 162.30, while the first support is at 161.20.
| R1: 162.30 | S1: 161.20 |
| R2: 162.80 | S2: 160.00 |
| R3: 163.50 | S3: 159.00 |
The GBP/USD pair traded under pressure near 1.3400 as intensifying Middle East conflict drove safe-haven dollar demand, neutralizing previous sterling gains from soft U.S. employment figures. With both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England holding interest rates at 3.75%, future direction relies heavily on data. Market participants remain highly cautious ahead of U.S. inflation figures and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming testimony.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3440, with support around 1.3320.
| R1: 1.3440 | S1: 1.3320 |
| R2: 1.3500 | S2: 1.3230 |
| R3: 1.3550 | S3: 1.3180 |
Silver fell below $59 an ounce on Monday, extending recent losses as escalating U.S.–Iran missile exchanges drove oil prices higher, intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening. The U.S. launched a fourth round of strikes Sunday following an assault on a Cyprus-flagged vessel. Market participants now await crucial U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming congressional testimony.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $60.00, while support is located around $57.20.
| R1: 60.00 | S1: 57.20 |
| R2: 61.70 | S2: 55.00 |
| R3: 63.30 | S3: 53.50 |
Global markets remained cautious ahead of the latest U.S. inflation report as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets on edge.
Geopolitics Fuel Inflation Fears (13 – 17 July)Global markets remained driven by geopolitical developments this week as renewed US-Iran strikes and uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire kept investors focused on inflation risks and the outlook for monetary policy. Although oil prices eased toward the end of the week as diplomatic talks continued, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to support energy markets. Investors also assessed the latest Federal Reserve commentary and June FOMC minutes, which highlighted persistent concerns over inflation despite keeping interest rates unchanged.
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