Global markets started the week cautiously as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions lifted oil prices and reinforced inflation concerns.
Investors are focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony for clues on the interest rate outlook. Safe-haven demand supported the U.S. dollar, keeping pressure on the euro, pound, gold, and silver, while the Japanese yen stabilized on intervention speculation.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 15:30 | USD | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.735% | |
| 16:30 | USD | Fed Waller Speaks |
The euro remains pressured near the 1.1400 threshold as regional conflict elevates safe-haven dollar demand. Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and approaching inflation data signal upcoming volatility, intensified by the divergence between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a dovish ECB. Sellers maintain technical control while price action stays below the April descending trendline.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1440 while the support starts from 1.1360.
| R1: 1.1440 | S1: 1.1360 |
| R2: 1.1465 | S2: 1.1330 |
| R3: 1.1500 | S3: 1.1300 |
Gold dropped below $4,100 an ounce on Monday as renewed U.S.–Iran missile strikes drove oil prices higher, intensifying market bets on inflation-taming interest rate hikes. The U.S. launched a fourth round of strikes Sunday following an attack on a Cyprus-flagged vessel. Investors now await pivotal U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming congressional testimony.
First resistance is seen at $4120, with initial support near $4020.
| R1: 4120 | S1: 4020 |
| R2: 4160 | S2: 3950 |
| R3: 4200 | S3: 3900 |
The USD/JPY pair traded within a narrow short-term range ahead of critical U.S. inflation data, pulling back from recent multi-decade highs while sustaining its broader upward trajectory. The yen found support after Japan's Finance Minister urged pension funds to increase domestic asset allocations. However, elevated oil prices driven by U.S.–Iran frictions continue to burden the import-reliant Japanese economy.
Initial resistance stands at 162.30, while the first support is at 161.20.
| R1: 162.30 | S1: 161.20 |
| R2: 162.80 | S2: 160.00 |
| R3: 163.50 | S3: 159.00 |
The GBP/USD pair traded under pressure near 1.3400 as intensifying Middle East conflict drove safe-haven dollar demand, neutralizing previous sterling gains from soft U.S. employment figures. With both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England holding interest rates at 3.75%, future direction relies heavily on data. Market participants remain highly cautious ahead of U.S. inflation figures and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming testimony.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3440, with support around 1.3320.
| R1: 1.3440 | S1: 1.3320 |
| R2: 1.3500 | S2: 1.3230 |
| R3: 1.3550 | S3: 1.3180 |
Silver fell below $59 an ounce on Monday, extending recent losses as escalating U.S.–Iran missile exchanges drove oil prices higher, intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening. The U.S. launched a fourth round of strikes Sunday following an assault on a Cyprus-flagged vessel. Market participants now await crucial U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming congressional testimony.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $60.00, while support is located around $57.20.
| R1: 60.00 | S1: 57.20 |
| R2: 61.70 | S2: 55.00 |
| R3: 63.30 | S3: 53.50 |
Global markets remained focused on U.S. fiscal concerns, shifting central bank expectations, and renewed Middle East tensions.
Fed Inflation Concerns RemainThe latest Federal Reserve minutes show that inflation remains a central concern for policymakers, even as recent economic data has reduced the urgency for another rate increase. Some officials believe price pressures are becoming more widespread, while a smaller group directly supported further tightening.
Detail
Dollar Falls on Debt Concerns as Yields Rise (24 – 28 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under continued pressure as concerns over federal debt and Treasury market management moved to the center of investor attention. The Dollar Index hovered near 98.8 following sharp losses in the previous week, while the US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback programme pushed longer-term yields and the dollar lower. The move supported gold, silver, and major currencies, while investors assessed its longer-term implications for US borrowing costs and the yield curve.
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