Markets remained cautious on Thursday as investors awaited the ECB's expected rate cut and Friday's key U.S. jobs data.
Weak U.S. economic indicators, including soft ADP employment and ISM Services PMI, weighed on the dollar, lifting safe-haven assets like gold and silver. EUR/USD held above 1.1400, while the yen maintained gains and GBP/USD found support from strong UK PMI data. Focus now shifts to ECB President Lagarde’s guidance and Fed rate cut expectations.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:15 | EUR | Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) | 2.00% | 2.25% |
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 2.65% | |
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Statement | ||
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) | 2.15% | 2.40% |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 236K | 240K |
| 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | ||
| 14:15 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ||
| 15:00 | EUR | German Buba Mauderer Speaks |
The EUR/USD pair trades slightly above 1.1400 early Thursday as markets await the ECB’s expected 25 bps rate cut, which would mark its seventh consecutive cut, lowering the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.00%. Softer Eurozone inflation supports easing.
The U.S. dollar stays weak after disappointing ISM Services PMI and ADP jobs data (+37K), with the focus now on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. Markets also await ECB President Lagarde’s comments on the rate outlook and EU–US trade talks.
The key resistance is located at 1.1460 and the first support stands at 1.1320.
| R1: 1.1460 | S1: 1.1320 |
| R2: 1.1500 | S2: 1.1260 |
| R3: 1.1580 | S3: 1.1210 |
The Japanese yen traded near 142.9 on Thursday, steady after a 1% gain on Wednesday driven by broad U.S. dollar weakness following soft jobs and services data.
Japan’s real wages fell for a fourth month in April, with inflation outpacing earnings, raising concerns over the economic outlook. Despite this, BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed their readiness to raise rates if inflation and growth conditions are met.
The The key resistance is at $144.40 meanwhile the major support is located at $142.50.
| R1: 144.40 | S1: 142.50 |
| R2: 144.70 | S2: 142.10 |
| R3: 146.10 | S3: 141.50 |
Gold hovered near $3,370 on Thursday, supported by safe-haven demand after soft U.S. services and ADP jobs data reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.
Investor caution deepened as Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum and described China’s President Xi Jinping as “particularly difficult” in trade talks. Fed officials remained cautious despite Trump's calls for easing. Markets now await Friday’s U.S. jobs report for further policy guidance.
The first critical support for gold is seen at $3320 and the first resistance is located at $3385.
| R1: 3385 | S1: 3320 |
| R2: 3435 | S2: 3290 |
| R3: 3500 | S3: 3250 |
GBP/USD eased to around 1.3550 in Thursday’s Asian session, retreating on a U.S. dollar rebound. However, weak U.S. data may cap further downside: May’s ISM Services PMI fell to 49.9, and ADP jobs data showed only 37K new hires, prompting Trump to call the Fed “too late” and push for rate cuts.
In the UK, stronger PMI figures supported the pound, with Composite PMI at 50.3 and Services PMI at 50.9. UK exporters also welcomed Trump’s move to delay a planned steel tariff hike.
The first critical support for gold is seen at 1.3425 and the first resistance is located at 1.3600.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3425 |
| R2: 1.3750 | S2: 1.3165 |
| R3: 1.3850 | S3: 1.2890 |
Silver hovered around $34.50 per ounce on Thursday, supported by disappointing U.S. economic data and rising trade tensions. The ADP report showed only 37,000 jobs were added in May, marking the weakest gain in over two years. The ISM Services PMI also signaled contraction, with new business falling and input costs increasing, likely due to recent tariffs.
President Trump continued to urge the Federal Reserve to cut rates, although policymakers have remained cautious. On the trade front, Trump said reaching a deal with China’s President Xi Jinping is proving extremely difficult, which further dampened market sentiment.
The first critical support for gold is seen at 33.65 and the first resistance is located at 34.90.
| R1: 34.90 | S1: 33.65 |
| R2: 35.40 | S2: 32.80 |
| R3: 36.00 | S3: 32.50 |
UK Economy Picks Up Pace in June as Manufacturing ReboundsThe UK private sector returned to modest growth in June, rounding off the second quarter on a more positive note.
Detail Trump’s Iran Strike Fuels Dollar Rally, Pressures Euro and Gold (06.23.2025)Markets opened the week gripped by fresh geopolitical risks after U.S. forces struck Iranian nuclear sites, prompting a wave of safe-haven demand.
Detail
Dollar Gains During Tensions But Fed Stays Cautious (23 - 27 June)The US dollar index slipped late in the week but ended higher on safe-haven demand as Israel-Iran tensions grew. Trump gave Iran two weeks to halt its nuclear program. The Fed held rates and signaled two cuts in 2025, warning tariffs could lift inflation. EUR/USD was flat. The dollar rose early, then eased, helping the euro recover. Lagarde’s comments reinforced a hawkish ECB outlook. The pound weakened after the BoE held rates with a split vote. The yen rebounded toward 145 on strong inflation data but still posted weekly losses.
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