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BOJ Pauses, but Tightening Isn't Over

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% in July, a widely expected decision after June's 25-basis-point rate hike.

While policymakers opted to pause, the meeting showed that the debate over further tightening is far from settled.

The decision passed by an 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata calling for another increase to 1.25%. His dissent emphasized ongoing concern that inflationary pressures could prove more persistent than expected.

A Brighter Long-Term Outlook

The BoJ said underlying inflation still has the potential to move above its 2% target and will continue monitoring yen movements, global demand, and AI-driven investment for signs of stronger price pressures.

The central bank lowered its FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, partly reflecting government support for household energy costs, while raising its FY2026 growth forecast slightly to 0.6%.

Looking further ahead, the BoJ raised both its FY2027 inflation and growth forecasts, reinforcing expectations that additional rate hikes are still possible. The pace of future tightening will depend on wage growth, domestic demand, and the path of the yen.

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