The US economy continued to demonstrate strength in October, according to the latest flash PMI data.
October’s flash US PMI survey showed a continued rise in business activity, marking a strong start to the fourth quarter. This growth was driven solely by the service sector, as manufacturing output declined for the third month. Employment also saw a slight decrease for the third month in a row, reflecting uncertainties related to the Presidential Election.
However, confidence in the outlook for the upcoming year rebounded after a significant dip in September, with companies predicting more stability and certainty post-election. The survey also reported a slower pace of inflation for input costs and prices charged, with the latter dropping sharply to its lowest level since May 2020, largely due to a significant easing in service sector inflation.
Source: S&P Global
Easing oil prices and retreating Treasury yields (around 5.23% ) provided some relief to financial markets as improving US-Iran diplomatic prospects reduced immediate inflation concerns.
Hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes reinforced expectations for another rate hike this year, pushing Treasury yields higher and supporting the US dollar.
Oil inventories are nearing depletion, increasing supply risks and supporting prices. Aramco estimates less than 6 billion barrels remain after over 1 billion barrels were drawn this year, while the IEA is preparing a 100-million-barrel release. The US 10-year Treasury yield stabilized near 5.31% on Wednesday, close to 24-year peaks, as markets awaited the Fed's minutes.
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