Easter Holiday (17 – 22 April, 2025)

China’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.

Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated. 

Global markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.