Global markets remained focused on shifting interest rate expectations after U.S. inflation cooled to 3.4%, reducing the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
The dollar index held near 99.9 following Wednesday's swings, with markets eyeing July's producer inflation report. Gold held above $4,400 and silver approached seven-week highs, while the euro and sterling traded within narrow ranges against the dollar. Meanwhile, the yen remained near 159 as intervention concerns persisted, while uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence energy prices and broader market sentiment.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | GBP | GDP (MoM) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 06:00 | GBP | GDP (YoY) | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 12:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 202K | 199K | |
| 17:00 | USD | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.058% |
EUR/USD hovers near 1.1522 as markets weigh diverging central bank outlooks. Cooling US inflation at 3.4% kept Federal Reserve rate hike probability near 40%, whereas persistent German inflation at 2.8% maintains European Central Bank rate increase expectations for September. Additionally, crude prices topping $89 driven by Middle East geopolitical friction continue providing underlying support to the safe-haven dollar.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1570 while the support starts from 1.1500.
| R1: 1.1570 | S1: 1.1500 |
| R2: 1.1590 | S2: 1.1470 |
| R3: 1.1610 | S3: 1.1420 |
Gold maintains momentum above $4,400 per ounce near ten-week highs after July US inflation slowed to 3.4%, dampening Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Probabilities for a September rate increase eased to 40%, while retreating crude prices provided additional support. However, ongoing friction in US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin safe-haven interest.
First resistance is seen at $4430, with initial support near $4370.
| R1: 4430 | S1: 4370 |
| R2: 4460 | S2: 4330 |
| R3: 4500 | S3: 4280 |
The Japanese yen hovered near 159.3 per dollar, keeping markets vigilant for potential official intervention approaching the 160 threshold. Broad interest rate gaps, fiscal pressures, and costly imports continue weighing on the currency, despite cooling US inflation easing Federal Reserve rate hike bets. Meanwhile, Japan’s July producer prices rose 7.2%, reinforcing persistent domestic inflation risks.
First resistance is seen at 160.00, with initial support near 158.60.
| R1: 160.00 | S1: 158.60 |
| R2: 162.10 | S2: 157.30 |
| R3: 162.50 | S3: 155.80 |
GBP/USD slipped slightly near 1.3487 as markets anticipate UK second-quarter economic growth slowing to 0.4%. With US inflation matching forecasts at 3.4%, the dollar remained largely flat. Sterling maintains position above crucial support around 1.3425, though historical seasonal weakness during August could limit immediate upward momentum.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3400.
| R1: 1.3530 | S1: 1.3400 |
| R2: 1.3560 | S2: 1.3320 |
| R3: 1.3600 | S3: 1.3240 |
Silver advanced toward $66 per ounce, holding near seven-week peaks after US inflation cooled to 3.4% in July. The slowdown reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations for September down to roughly 40%. While easing crude prices offered additional tailwinds for precious metals, stagnant US-Iran discussions regarding the Strait of Hormuz maintained underlying geopolitical tension.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $65.80, while support is located around $64.50.
| R1: 65.80 | S1: 64.50 |
| R2: 66.40 | S2: 62.50 |
| R3: 67.60 | S3: 61.20 |
Japan Business Sentiment Improves in AugustBusiness sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers improved in August 2026, supported mainly by continued strength in semiconductor-related industries. The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index climbed to +18 from +13 in July, reaching its highest level since March.
Detail U.S. Inflation and Hormuz Talks Shape Sentiment (08.12.2026)Global markets traded cautiously ahead of key U.S. inflation data, with investors assessing its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision.
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