Dovish Fed Lifts Metals as Dollar Pauses (09.04.2026)

Global markets shifted as dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller reduced expectations for a September rate hike and weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields. 

The dollar index held near 99 Friday after sliding sharply, as traders scaled back September hike bets following dovish comments from Waller, who indicated he'd support holding rates if inflation eases further. Hike odds dropped to roughly 50% from 63%. Gold held near $4,500 and silver climbed toward $67, while the euro and sterling recovered modestly from recent lows. The yen strengthened toward 156, supported by intervention speculation and expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening. Investors now turn to U.S. payrolls data for further clues on the Fed’s policy outlook.

Euro Pauses Selloff Above $1.16

The euro edged slightly above $1.16, pausing its recent selloff as a strengthening yen weighed on the dollar. Easing energy prices provided brief relief after Brent crude pulled back from six-week peaks on comments suggesting a short-lived Iran conflict. However, persistent inflation and fiscal worries keep the euro near multi-week lows, with markets fully pricing an ECB rate hike next week.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1550.

Gold Holds Near $4,500

Gold hovered near $4,500 on Friday, posting gains for a second straight session after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller lowered September rate-hike odds to 50%. Waller indicated a preference for holding rates steady if inflation continues to cool. The resulting decline in the US dollar and Treasury yields provided strong support for bullion, while oil advanced on persistent Middle East supply risks.

First resistance is seen at $4500, with initial support near $4450.

Yen Caps Strong Week

The Japanese yen hovered near 156 against the dollar on Friday, capping its best weekly gain of roughly 2.5% since July. While official intervention remains unconfirmed, speculation over recent rate checks supported the currency. Investors now price in a quarter-point Bank of Japan rate hike this month and another in December, with broad dollar weakness after dovish Fed comments offering further support.

First resistance is seen at 158.00, with initial support near 155.10.

Pound Steadies Near 1.3530

GBP/USD rose toward 1.3530, recovering modestly from two-week lows. The pound drew support from BoE official Pill backing a rate increase to 4.00% and PM Burnham promising fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, the recent US dollar rally stalled as traders pause ahead of key US payrolls data to gauge the Fed's next policy moves.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3590, with support around 1.3470.

Silver Rises Near $67

Silver climbed toward $67 on Friday, advancing for a second straight session after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller reduced September rate-hike expectations to 50%. Waller expressed support for holding interest rates steady if inflation continues to cool. The resulting decline in the US dollar and bond yields supported precious metals, while energy prices posted strong weekly gains.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $68.50, while support is located around $66.00.