Global markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors balanced renewed U.S.–Iran tensions with expectations for further central bank tightening.
Gold and silver held near recent levels despite persistent inflation concerns, while the euro and pound found support from rate hike expectations. The Japanese yen recovered from multi-decade lows on intervention speculation, though the stronger U.S. dollar and geopolitical uncertainty continued to shape market sentiment.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| All Day | NZD | New Zealand – Bank Holiday | ||
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | -0.2% |
The euro traded near $1.145, recovering from June’s one-year low on expectations of a September ECB rate hike, though cooling Eurozone inflation capped gains. EUR/USD faced headwinds as safe-haven dollar demand intensified after Donald Trump terminated the Iran ceasefire, reinforced by hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and Brent crude testing multi-week highs.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1480 while the support starts from 1.1430.
| R1: 1.1480 | S1: 1.1430 |
| R2: 1.1510 | S2: 1.1400 |
| R3: 1.1550 | S3: 1.1350 |
Gold stabilized above $4,120 an ounce on Friday, ending a volatile week virtually unchanged as market participants evaluated persistent Middle East frictions. Ongoing U.S.–Iran discussions continue despite recent airstrikes disrupting energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving inflation anxieties. While a Federal Reserve rate hike remains anticipated later this year, monetary policy trajectories remain cloudier after John Williams cited artificial intelligence demand as a primary inflationary threat.
First resistance is seen at $4150, with initial support near $4080.
| R1: 4150 | S1: 4080 |
| R2: 4180 | S2: 4000 |
| R3: 4250 | S3: 3950 |
The Japanese yen strengthened past 161.5 per dollar on Friday, reversing its weekly losses as market participants remained alert for potential currency intervention following recent 40-year lows. While investors await data confirming official support, domestic producer price inflation surged 7.1% in June. Additionally, retreating oil prices tied to renewed U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks further alleviated pressure on the currency.
Initial resistance stands at 162.00, while the first support is at 160.70.
| R1: 162.00 | S1: 160.70 |
| R2: 162.80 | S2: 160.00 |
| R3: 163.50 | S3: 159.00 |
The pound advanced past $1.34, hitting its highest level since mid-June, as investors increased Bank of England rate-hike expectations amid intensifying U.S.–Iran frictions. Crude oil hit multi-week highs following fresh airstrikes and Donald Trump's termination of the ceasefire, amplifying inflation anxieties. Overnight, markets fully priced in a December BoE rate increase, while sterling's stability indicated that political succession dynamics are already digested.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3480, with support around 1.3380.
| R1: 1.3480 | S1: 1.3380 |
| R2: 1.3510 | S2: 1.3300 |
| R3: 1.3550 | S3: 1.3250 |
Silver stabilized near $60 an ounce on Friday, though it remained on track for a weekly loss as market participants monitored Middle East developments. Ongoing U.S.–Iran diplomatic discussions provided a backdrop to recent airstrikes that disrupted energy flows and reawakened inflation fears. Markets continue to price in a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, despite policy uncertainty linked to AI-driven demand.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.80, while support is located around $59.20.
| R1: 61.80 | S1: 59.20 |
| R2: 63.10 | S2: 57.00 |
| R3: 65.00 | S3: 55.00 |
Global markets remained focused on U.S. fiscal concerns, shifting central bank expectations, and renewed Middle East tensions.
Fed Inflation Concerns RemainThe latest Federal Reserve minutes show that inflation remains a central concern for policymakers, even as recent economic data has reduced the urgency for another rate increase. Some officials believe price pressures are becoming more widespread, while a smaller group directly supported further tightening.
Detail
Dollar Falls on Debt Concerns as Yields Rise (24 – 28 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under continued pressure as concerns over federal debt and Treasury market management moved to the center of investor attention. The Dollar Index hovered near 98.8 following sharp losses in the previous week, while the US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback programme pushed longer-term yields and the dollar lower. The move supported gold, silver, and major currencies, while investors assessed its longer-term implications for US borrowing costs and the yield curve.
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