Strong US Data Fuels Fed Hike Bets (10.30.2026)

Strong US economic growth and persistent inflation reinforced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping precious metals under pressure. 

Gold slipped below $4,000, heading for a 4% monthly decline, while silver fell toward $51, facing a nearly 15% loss for October. Meanwhile, the euro recovered above 1.1200 as softer Treasury yields and expectations for ECB tightening weakened the dollar. Sterling climbed toward 1.3400 on growing confidence in a November Bank of England rate hike, while the yen strengthened toward 157 per dollar following hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. Middle East diplomatic hopes also reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar.

EUR/USD Extends Recovery Above 1.1200

EUR/USD extended its recovery from multi-month lows around 1.1100 for a third session, crossing above 1.1200 during Friday's Asian trading. Sterling and euro sentiment were buoyed as the ECB signaled potential December rate increases to tackle energy-driven inflation. Softening US Treasury yields and Middle East diplomatic hopes weighed on the dollar, though strong 3.4% annualized US Q3 growth preserves a 75% probability of a December Fed hike. Strait of Hormuz energy risks continue to limit pair gains ahead of Eurozone GDP and unemployment data.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1220 while the support starts from 1.1150.

Gold Drops Below $4,000 Mark

Gold slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Friday, continuing its decline as persistent inflation and strong economic growth reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase later this year. The US PCE price index expanded 0.5% in September, pushing annual inflation to 3.6%, while third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% rate. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged ahead of upcoming midterm elections, futures markets still price in roughly a 75% probability of a December rate hike. Gold faces a 4% monthly decline for October.

First resistance is seen at $4060, with initial support near $3950.

Yen Gains Toward 157 per Dollar

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 157 per dollar on Friday, rising for a third consecutive session after the Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25%. BOJ officials indicated underlying inflation has met its 2% target, clearing a path for a December rate increase. Notably, board member Hajime Taka dissented, advocating an immediate hike to 1.5%. Safe-haven flows further supported the yen following weak tech earnings, while global asset managers returned to Japanese bonds attracted by improving yields and domestic growth dynamics.

First resistance is seen at 158.10, with initial support near 156.70.

GBP/USD Hits 1.3400; BOE Hikes Loom

GBP/USD extended its rally into a third day during Friday's Asian session, climbing to approximately 1.3400. Sterling is strengthened by the market's conviction that the Bank of England will deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike next week, with another following in February. In a parallel move, Chancellor Healey introduced tax increases for banks, savers, and landlords to mitigate high energy prices. Meanwhile, rising optimism about peace in the Middle East has curbed US dollar safe-haven demand, with the probability of a December Fed rate hike falling from 84% to 75%.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3420, with support around 1.3330.

Silver Falls Toward $51 Level

Silver dropped toward $51 per ounce on Friday, marking its lowest level since November 2025 as sticky inflation and strong US economic growth supported rate hike expectations. The September US PCE price index rose 0.5%, raising annual inflation to 3.6%, while third-quarter GDP expanded at an annualized 3.4% rate. Although the Fed held rates steady ahead of upcoming midterm elections, CME FedWatch tools signal a 75% chance of a December hike. Silver now faces an approximate 15% drop for October, marking a second consecutive monthly decline.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.20, while support is located around $50.50.