Risk-On Mood Lifts Currencies and Metals (04.15.2026)

Markets maintained a risk-on tone as expectations for renewed US–Iran negotiations continued to weigh on the dollar. 

EUR/USD held near 1.1800, supported by improved sentiment and easing inflation concerns, while sterling climbed to multi-month highs on similar drivers. USD/JPY remained subdued below 159 as mixed forces limited movement, with Japan’s energy vulnerability offsetting weaker dollar dynamics. In commodities, gold extended gains above $4,800 and silver surged past $79, driven by easing inflation fears, lower oil prices, and a softer dollar. Despite the optimism, markets remain cautious as geopolitical risks and energy supply concerns persist.

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1800

EUR/USD held firm near 1.1800 as hopes for renewed US–Iran negotiations weakened the dollar. Support for the pair stems from improved market sentiment and cooling US inflation, with talks expected to resume shortly. Further gains likely hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs, as ongoing energy and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz maintain the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted the bank is prepared for conflict-related risks but cautioned that it is too early to dismiss the war's full economic impact.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1770.

Gold Climbs Above $4,800

Gold remained above $4,800 on Wednesday following a 2% gain, as hopes for a US–Iran peace agreement eased fears of an energy-led inflation spike. Reports indicate both nations are preparing for a second round of negotiations after previous attempts stalled. Although the US maintains its naval blockade of Iranian oil in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is reportedly considering a temporary suspension of shipments to foster a better environment for the upcoming talks. This potential diplomatic shift continues to anchor the metal's recent strength.

First resistance is seen at $4870, with initial support near $4800.

USD/JPY Stabilizes Below 159.00

USD/JPY remained below 159.00 as opposing market forces limited movement. While optimism regarding US–Iran diplomacy pressured the dollar, the yen failed to capitalize on this weakness. Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten energy supplies, creating economic anxiety for Japan due to its heavy reliance on oil imports. This ongoing resource vulnerability effectively offsets safe-haven demand, keeping the yen under pressure.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Pound Climbs Toward $1.36 on Peace Hopes

The British pound strengthened toward $1.36, hitting its highest point since mid February. This rise follows improved risk appetite fueled by hopes for US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad, even as the US blockade of Iranian ports continues. Falling oil prices below $100 per barrel further supported the currency. However, persistent inflation risks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have shifted market expectations. Traders now anticipate a more aggressive Bank of England, pricing in nearly two interest rate hikes by the end of the year.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3510.

Silver Surges Past $79

Silver maintained its position above $79 on Wednesday after a powerful 5% rally, driven by the prospect of a US–Iran settlement. This diplomatic shift has mitigated fears of a massive inflation spike linked to energy costs. While the US naval blockade persists, Tehran’s potential move to pause oil shipments is seen as a gesture to facilitate upcoming talks in Islamabad. Further aiding the metal’s ascent are retreating oil prices, which have slipped under $100, and a weakening dollar that recently touched a six-week low.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.00 while support is located around $77.70.